Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Le Havre

Home Team
40%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
33%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 22.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Le Havre W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)

Toulouse L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.88
# Clean Sheets: 1

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Le Havre are slight favourites at home with a 40.0% chance of victory, compared to 33.0% for Toulouse and a 27.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win in a tight contest between 13th-placed Le Havre (23 points) and 8th-placed Toulouse (30 points). The goals market points to an under 2.5 outcome, with only a 45.0% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Le Havre come into this with a solid run of low-scoring, disciplined displays. They’ve taken four points from their last two home matches – a 2-1 win over Strasbourg and a 0-0 draw with Monaco – and were narrowly beaten 1-0 away at high-flying Lens. Across those three games they’ve conceded just two goals, underlining a compact defensive setup that keeps matches tight. Toulouse, despite sitting higher in the table, also arrive on the back of cagey encounters. Their last three have finished 2-0 win at Brest, 0-0 at home to Auxerre and a 1-0 defeat at Angers – just three goals scored and one conceded in total. Over the last five games, Toulouse average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with xG for at 1.13 and against at 1.086, suggesting they create and allow a moderate number of chances but manage them well. Le Havre’s numbers (0.8 goals scored, 0.6 conceded, with xG for at 1.076 and xG against at 0.88) reinforce the idea of a defensively strong side that often plays below three total goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is backed by a 55.0% implied probability, and the data strongly supports a low-scoring match. Two of Le Havre’s last three games have gone under 2.5 goals (1-0, 0-0), with only the 2-1 win over Strasbourg going over. Toulouse have been even tighter: all three of their recent matches finished under 2.5. With both teams averaging fewer than two goals conceded combined per game over their last five, and xG figures (1.076 vs 0.88 for Le Havre, 1.13 vs 1.086 for Toulouse) pointing to contained chance creation, an under 2.5 outcome looks more likely than an over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.46, which fits with recent patterns. Le Havre’s last three games have produced 12, 7 and 11 corners respectively, showing they can generate and concede a fair volume when matches are balanced. Toulouse’s recent corner totals (8 vs Angers, 9 vs Auxerre, 5 vs Brest) also cluster around that 8–10 range. With both sides preferring structured, methodical play rather than constant end-to-end attacks, a corners prediction around 9–10 set pieces feels consistent with their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.93, suggesting a medium-volume contest rather than a barrage of attempts. Le Havre’s last three matches saw combined shot totals of 25 (vs Strasbourg), 23 (vs Lens), and 17 (vs Monaco), while Toulouse’s produced 24 (vs Angers), 20 (vs Auxerre), and 21 (vs Brest). These figures match well with an expected shots range in the low-to-mid 20s. Given both teams’ xG numbers just above 1.0 per game, the shots prediction lines up with the idea of a handful of decent chances each rather than relentless attacking.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s edge comes from their recent defensive stability at home and their ability to keep stronger opponents like Monaco and Strasbourg under control. Toulouse have been solid but not explosive, and in a matchup where margins are slim, home advantage and Le Havre’s compact shape tip the balance slightly their way. The key factor to watch will be which side can make the most of limited clear chances in what projects to be a tight, tactical encounter.

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