Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Angers Prediction - 20 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lens

Home Team
76%
VS

Angers

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Lens L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 5 - 0)

Angers L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.95
# Clean Sheets: 2

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are strong favourites here, with a 76.0% probability of taking all three points against Angers (11.0% away win, 13.0% draw). Second in Ligue 1 on 56 points, Lens are chasing Paris SG at the top, while Angers sit 12th on 32 points and looking over their shoulder at the bottom half. The model points to a home win combined with an over 2.5 goals prediction (59.0% probability), suggesting an open game tilted towards the hosts.

Match Analysis

Lens come into this on the back of a mixed but largely dominant run of performances. They hammered Metz 3–0 at home, then were held 1–1 at Strasbourg and slipped to a 2–1 defeat at Lorient, yet in all three matches they racked up far more corners and shots: 20–6 shots at Lorient, 24–5 against Metz, and 25–8 at Strasbourg. The underlying numbers support that control: over the last five games Lens average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with xG figures of 1.856 for and 0.946 against, plus two clean sheets, underlining a side that generally imposes itself and limits chances at the other end. Angers, by contrast, arrive with form that is solid defensively but blunt in attack. They edged Nantes 1–0 away, but fell 2–0 at Monaco and 2–0 at home to Nice, so just one goal scored and four conceded across their last three outings. Their five-game averages tell the same story: only 0.4 goals scored per match against 1.2 conceded, and a modest 0.588 xG created versus 1.206 xG allowed. That profile – compact but limited going forward – makes a trip to a high-volume, possession-heavy Lens side particularly daunting.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with 59.0% probability, despite Angers’ recent low scores. Two of Lens’s last three games have hit at least three goals (3–0 vs Metz, 1–2 at Lorient), with only the 1–1 draw at Strasbourg staying under. Angers have seen all of their last three matches finish under 2.5, but their defensive resistance is likely to be tested by a Lens attack averaging 2.0 goals and 1.856 xG per game, while Angers concede 1.2 goals and 1.206 xG on average, tilting this towards a higher-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lens
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.62, which fits neatly with how these two have been playing. Lens have posted corner counts of 10, 6 and 8 in their last three fixtures, consistently forcing opponents back and racking up set-piece opportunities. Angers’ recent corner tallies (7, 4 and 2) show a more modest but still active approach, and with Lens expected to dominate territory, this corners prediction suggests a match where the home side’s aggressive, front-foot style generates the bulk of the 9–10 expected corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lens
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure stands at 25.11 for the match, entirely in line with recent patterns. Lens alone have fired 20, 24 and 25 attempts in their last three games, numbers that mirror their strong attacking xG output and constant pressure in the final third. Angers’ totals (11, 11 and 6 shots) indicate they can contribute but are likely to be second-best, so this shots prediction points to Lens driving most of the 25 expected shots, reflecting their superiority in chance creation.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge through a combination of league position, recent dominance in shots and corners, and superior attacking and defensive averages. Angers’ low scoring rate and modest xG make it hard to see them matching the hosts over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Lens turn their expected territorial control into goals; if they score early, the gap between a Champions League chaser and a mid-table side should become clear.

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