Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Metz Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lens

Home Team
95%
VS

Metz

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Lens D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Metz L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.04
# Clean Sheets: 2

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are heavy favourites at home, with a 95.0% probability of victory against a Metz side marooned at the bottom of Ligue 1. Second in the table on 53 points, Lens are pushing hard for the Champions League places, while 18th‑placed Metz sit on just 13 points and are fighting to avoid relegation. The game leans towards goals too, with an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% and both teams rated at 51.0% to get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Lens come into this one in solid form despite a small wobble. A 5-0 demolition of Paris FC away showcased their attacking ceiling, while the 3-2 home defeat to Monaco underlined both their offensive ambition and occasional defensive looseness. The 1-1 draw at Strasbourg was dominant in everything but the scoreline – 25 shots to 8 and 8-2 on corners – suggesting performance levels remain high even when the result doesn’t fully follow. Metz, by contrast, are arriving in Lens on a three-game losing streak, and the numbers are worrying. They were outplayed 1-0 at home by Brest (outshot 24-6), brushed aside 3-0 by Paris SG, and beaten 3-1 at home by fellow struggler Auxerre. Over their last five matches, Metz average only 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with a meagre 0.43 expected goals per game going forward and 1.71 against, highlighting a side that struggles to create and often bends under pressure. Lens’ advanced metrics reinforce the gulf. Over the last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, with xG figures of 1.796 for and 1.042 against per game, plus two clean sheets. That balance – steady output in attack and relatively tight at the back – is exactly what you expect from a side sitting second in Ligue 1 and heavily favoured at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% looks justified. Two of Lens’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Monaco, 5-0 vs Paris FC), while the other finished 1-1. For Metz, two of their last three also went over – 3-0 at Paris SG and 3-1 vs Auxerre – with only the 1-0 loss to Brest staying under 2.5. With Lens averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Metz conceding 2.0 per match, the attacking and xG trends both tilt towards another open game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lens
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.51, which fits with recent patterns. Lens have generated 8, 7 and 5 corners in their last three games, regularly pushing opponents back and racking up set-piece situations. Metz have been on the back foot more often, conceding 12 corners to Brest and 4 to Paris SG, though they did manage 4 of their own against Brest and Auxerre. With Lens expected to dominate territory, this corners prediction suits a match where the hosts’ high, aggressive approach should keep Metz pinned deep for long spells.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lens
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.26 also aligns with recent evidence. Lens have fired off 25, 18 and 17 attempts in their last three outings, consistently peppering opposition goals, while conceding relatively modest shot counts in return. Metz, on the other hand, have allowed 24 shots to Brest, 17 to Paris SG and 14 to Auxerre, while struggling to create more than 6 or 7 themselves. That imbalance in volume and quality ties directly to the xG gap between the sides and supports a shots prediction where Lens generate the bulk of the expected shots.

Final Prediction

Lens hold a huge edge through form, league position and underlying numbers, and with a 95.0% win probability, anything other than a home victory would be a major shock. Metz’s lack of creativity against one of the division’s most reliable attacks leaves them with a narrow margin for error. The key factor to watch will be how early Lens can turn their territorial dominance into goals; if they strike quickly, Metz may struggle to keep the scoreline respectable.

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