Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Monaco Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lens

Home Team
61%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Lens W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Monaco W D W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.65
# Clean Sheets: 3

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 61.0% probability of victory against Monaco’s 19.0%, which would further cement Lens’s position at the top of Ligue 1 (1st with 52 points) against 8th-placed Monaco on 31 points. The model points towards an over 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% probability, suggesting a match with attacking intent rather than a cagey affair.

Match Analysis

Lens come into this clash in outstanding form, riding a three-game winning streak: 5-0 away at Paris FC, 3-1 at home to Rennes, and 1-0 at home to Le Havre. Those results show they can both blow teams away and edge tighter contests, with only one goal conceded in that run. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded, backed up by strong expected goals numbers (1.874 xG for and only 0.654 xG against), underlining that their performances are no fluke. Monaco, despite sitting in mid-table, also arrive in decent recent form: a 3-1 home win over Nantes, a solid 0-0 away draw at Nice, and a 4-0 home win against Rennes. The last three matches suggest they can be explosive in attack on their day, but their broader five-game averages tell a different story: only 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, with 1.088 xG for and 1.372 xG against. That gap between xG and actual goals hints at wastefulness in front of goal and some defensive vulnerability, which is dangerous away at the league leaders.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines support it. Two of Lens’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (5-0 vs Paris FC, 3-1 vs Rennes), with only the 1-0 against Le Havre going under. Monaco also saw two of their last three matches finish over 2.5 (3-1 vs Nantes, 4-0 vs Rennes), with the 0-0 at Nice as the exception. Lens’s 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game, combined with Monaco’s higher xG for (1.088) than their recent scoring output, point to enough chances being created to justify the over 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lens
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.37, indicating a moderate to lively corners prediction rather than a barrage. Lens’s last three games produced 8, 8 and 7 total corners respectively, while Monaco’s matches saw 12, 14 and 7 corners. Both sides have shown they can push high and force blocks, and with Lens at home and Monaco capable of counter-attacking, a back-and-forth game around the predicted corners range looks likely.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lens
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this match is 25.0, a figure that fits the attacking profiles suggested by both teams’ recent xG. Lens have attempted 17, 10 and 15 shots in their last three outings, while allowing 11, 14 and 8. Monaco have taken 12, 10 and 14 shots, conceding 13, 13 and 8. These volumes align with the shots prediction and support the idea that both sides will create enough attempts to match their expected shots and produce a chance-rich encounter.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge thanks to their league-leading form, defensive solidity, and consistently strong underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch. Monaco’s recent big wins show they are dangerous, but their overall five-game averages suggest less reliability. The key factor to watch will be how Monaco’s defence copes with Lens’s sustained pressure and xG-backed attack over 90 minutes.

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