Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Toulouse Prediction - 17 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lens

Home Team
68%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Lens L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Toulouse L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

xG (avg) 2.20
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 1

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.26
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are clear favourites at home with a 68.0% chance of victory, compared to just 16.0% for Toulouse and a 17.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with 57.0% likelihood of at least three goals. In the table, Lens are flying in 2nd place on 59 points, while Toulouse sit 10th with 37 points, comfortably mid-table.

Match Analysis

Lens come into this with mixed recent results but strong underlying signs. They dismantled Angers 5-1 at home, racking up 26 shots and 7 corners, showing how dangerous they can be in front of their own fans. Either side of that, they lost 1-2 at Lorient and 0-3 away to Lille, but even in defeat they created chances – 20 shots and 10 corners at Lorient underline their attacking volume. Over the last five games, Lens are averaging 2.8 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, backed by 2.2 expected goals (xG) created and 1.098 xG against, figures that reflect a side that generally dominates. Toulouse arrive off back-to-back defeats against top sides Lille (0-4) and Paris SG (1-3), having previously edged Lorient 1-0 at home. Their last three matches all featured tight shot counts (12, 9 and 5 attempts by Toulouse) but opponents have created more, with 15 shots for Lille and 17 for PSG, exposing a defence that has conceded an average of 2.0 goals in the last five games. Their underlying numbers are more balanced – 1.264 xG for and 1.244 xG against – suggesting they can compete, but not at the same level of attacking punch as Lens, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 57.0% probability. Two of Lens’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (5-1 vs Angers, 1-2 at Lorient), with only the 0-3 at Lille being one-sided but still clearing the line. Toulouse have also seen 2 of their last 3 matches finish over 2.5 (0-4 vs Lille, 1-3 at PSG), with only the 1-0 win over Lorient going under 2.5. Lens’s average of 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, plus Toulouse conceding 2.0 on average, and both sides posting xG figures above 1.2 per game, all support a game where goals should come.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lens
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.14 total corners in this match. Lens’s last three outings produced corner counts of 6, 10 and 6 (for both teams combined), while Toulouse’s games finished with 6, 7 and 5 corners. Lens, in particular, are aggressive in wide areas – 7 corners against Angers and 10 at Lorient – which fits the expected 9+ range for predicted corners in a match where the home side should spend long spells in the attacking third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lens
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.76, which aligns well with recent patterns. Lens have been firing freely: 26 shots vs Angers, 20 at Lorient and even in the heavy defeat to Lille they still managed 5 attempts, underlining their constant attacking intent. Toulouse’s last three matches saw them take 12, 9 and 5 shots, while facing 7, 15 and 17 efforts. Given both teams’ xG profiles (Lens at 2.2, Toulouse at 1.264), this shots prediction fits a game where Lens in particular rack up attempts, translating pressure into chances.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge thanks to their superior form, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage, all reflected in a 68.0% win probability. Toulouse’s recent defensive record against top opponents makes this a daunting trip, even if their xG suggests they can create some danger. The key factor to watch will be whether Toulouse can withstand Lens’s sustained pressure in wide areas; if they crack early, this could quickly tilt in favour of the title-chasing hosts.

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