Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Brest Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lille

Home Team
73%
VS

Brest

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Lille D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)

Brest W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.93
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are strong favourites at home, with a 73.0% chance of victory against Brest’s 13.0%, and the model backing a home win (H). The game leans slightly towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 50.0% split on the goal line, suggesting a tight scoreline. In the table, Lille are 5th on 33 points, while Brest sit 12th with 26 points, adding extra weight to Lille’s status as favourites.

Match Analysis

Lille come into this one on a three-game winless run (two defeats and a draw), having failed to score in their last two matches: 0-0 at Metz and 0-1 at Lyon, after a 1-4 home loss to Strasbourg. Interestingly, the underlying numbers show they still create plenty: 1.944 expected goals (xG) on average across their last five games, against 1.55 xG conceded, and they’ve kept one clean sheet in that span. The recent slump looks more like poor finishing and some defensive lapses than a complete loss of control. Brest’s recent form has been mixed: a solid 2-0 home win over Lorient, a 2-2 draw away at Nice, and a 0-2 home defeat to Toulouse. Over their last five games they average 1.2 goals scored but are conceding 2.2, with only 1.116 xG for and a worrying 1.932 xG against. That suggests opponents are regularly creating more and better chances than them, reinforcing why Lille, even with recent stumbles, are given a strong edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 50.0% probability split and a predicted result of “under_2_5,” indicating a cautious stance on a goal fest. Two of Lille’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Metz, 0-1 vs Lyon), with only the 1-4 defeat to Strasbourg going over. Brest have seen two of their last three stay under 2.5 (2-0 vs Lorient, 0-2 vs Toulouse) and one over (2-2 vs Nice). With Lille averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Brest at 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded, plus relatively modest xG figures for both, the under 2.5 prediction is supported despite both sides being capable of scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lille
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.64, pointing to roughly 9–10 corners overall as the central corners prediction. Lille’s last three games produced 7, 9 and 9 corners, with Lille often on the front foot (6-1, 7-2, 8-1 in their favour), which fits an aggressive, chance-creating style. Brest’s matches brought 14, 11 and 5 corners (7-7, 5-6, 3-2), showing variability but a clear tendency to allow opponents territory. Combined, this hints at Lille driving the corner count, with Brest more reactive.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lille
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sits at 24.75, so the shots prediction is for around 25 total efforts on goal. Lille’s last three games saw them take 16, 11 and 20 shots (while conceding 6, 4 and 15), underlining how many attempts they generate, even when not winning. Brest’s last three featured 11, 12 and 13 shots for, and 13, 15 and 8 against, matching their xG profile of conceding more than they create. Those patterns align well with the expected shots total, with Lille likely to outshoot Brest but both sides contributing.

Final Prediction

Lille’s stronger league position, superior xG balance, and consistent shot and corner production give them a clear edge at home, justifying the 73.0% win probability. Brest’s defensive numbers and higher xG conceded suggest they may struggle to contain Lille over 90 minutes. A key factor to watch will be Lille’s finishing: if they match their chance creation with clinical touches, the predicted home win and low-to-moderate scoreline should both come through.

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