Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lorient vs Angers Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lorient

Home Team
66%
VS

Angers

Away Team
16%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 22.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Lorient L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)

Angers W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lorient

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.92
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.90
# Clean Sheets: 1

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Lorient are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 66.0% probability of victory against Angers’ 16.0%, in a mid‑table clash between 11th (Lorient, 28 points) and 9th (Angers, 29 points) in Ligue 1. The model leans towards a tight, cagey game with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a reasonable chance of chances being created. A draw sits at 18.0%, underlining Lorient’s status as clear favourites even against a side slightly higher in the standings.

Match Analysis

Lorient come into this one with confidence, having won two of their last three league games. They beat Nantes 2-1 at home and followed that up with a 2-0 away victory at Rennes, before a setback in a 2-0 defeat at Brest. Interestingly, they have been relatively efficient: fewer shots than their opponents in all three recent matches, yet they still found ways to win twice. Their recent averages underline a solid balance – 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over the last five games, supported by strong underlying figures of 1.916 expected goals (xG) for and just 0.904 xG against. Angers are on a quietly solid run themselves, unbeaten in three with back-to-back 1-0 home wins over Metz and Toulouse and a 0-0 draw away at Paris FC. They have been extremely tight at the back, recording three clean sheets in their last five matches and conceding an average of just 0.6 goals. However, their attack looks blunt: only 0.6 goals scored on average, and their xG for over the last five (0.602) suggests they are not creating many clear chances, while the 1.55 xG conceded figure hints that opponents are still finding ways to threaten despite the recent clean sheets.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 54.0% implied likelihood (given a 46.0% probability of over 2.5 goals). In terms of recent totals, 2 out of Lorient’s last 3 matches were under 2.5 goals (2-0, 2-1, 0-2), while all 3 of Angers’ recent games were under 2.5 (1-0, 1-0, 0-0). Combined with Lorient’s 1.6 scored/0.8 conceded and Angers’ 0.6 scored/0.6 conceded, plus Angers’ very low attacking xG, the under 2.5 call looks consistent with both teams’ current profiles and is a sensible over 2.5 prediction to oppose.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.14, pointing towards a roughly average corners prediction for this matchup. Lorient’s recent games produced 14, 5 and 12 corners respectively, while Angers’ last three saw 8, 7 and 3 – suggesting fluctuating but generally moderate corner counts. With Lorient creating decent xG and Angers preferring tight, controlled games, predicted corners just above nine fits a contest where neither side is relentlessly attacking but both will have spells of pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 22.57, which aligns with both sides’ recent numbers and forms the basis of a realistic shots prediction. Lorient’s last three games saw combined shot totals of 24, 15 and 28, while Angers’ fixtures yielded 24, 22 and 15 shots in total. Given Lorient’s stronger xG and Angers’ tendency to allow chances despite low scorelines, expected shots just above 22 suggests a match with opportunities but not constant end‑to‑end football.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s edge comes from their superior attacking output and underlying numbers, especially at home, compared with an Angers side that struggles to create but defends doggedly. The key factor to watch will be whether Angers’ disciplined defence can once again outperform their xG conceded, or if Lorient’s more potent attack eventually breaks them down in what should be a tight, low‑scoring encounter.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel