Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lorient vs Auxerre Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lorient

Home Team
65%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
17%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 21.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Lorient D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)

Auxerre L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lorient

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.76
# Clean Sheets: 2

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.50
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lorient are clear favourites at home, with a 65.0% probability of taking all three points against an Auxerre side sitting 16th and fighting to avoid the drop. Ninth-placed Lorient are expected to edge what could be a tight contest, with the model leaning towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a fairly balanced goals market (49.0% probability of over 2.5). Both teams are still scoring often enough that a “goal” outcome (both teams to score) is slightly favoured at 52.0%.

Match Analysis

Lorient come into this with mixed results but broadly positive signs. A 3-3 thriller away at Nice showed their attacking punch, while a controlled 2-0 home win over Angers underlined their ability to manage games at Le Moustoir. The 2-0 defeat at Brest is a reminder of their inconsistency, but across the last five matches they average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers: 1.95 expected goals created and just 0.756 conceded per game, plus two clean sheets. Auxerre’s recent form underlines why they are stuck in 16th. A 3-1 win away at Metz was a vital result, but it is bookended by a 0-0 home draw with Paris FC and a heavy 3-0 home defeat to Rennes. Their attack has struggled over a longer stretch, with only 0.8 goals scored per game in the last five and an xG of 0.862, while they concede 1.0 goal on average from 1.504 xG allowed. Two clean sheets hint at defensive resilience, but they are often second best in chance quality, which is a concern away to a confident Lorient side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied edge over the 49.0% chance of over, and that fits the broader trends. Lorient’s last three have produced one match over 2.5 goals (the 3-3 at Nice) and two under (2-0 vs Angers, 0-2 at Brest). Auxerre have also seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-0 vs Paris FC, 0-3 vs Rennes) and one over (3-1 at Metz). With Lorient averaging 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded and Auxerre at 0.8 for, 1.0 against, the over 2.5 prediction is slightly less convincing than a cautious under 2.5 call, even if a goal for each side remains very plausible given the 52.0% “goal” probability.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.28 total, pointing towards a moderately active game rather than an end-to-end siege. Lorient’s last three have produced 10, 5 and 14 corners (averaging 9.7), while Auxerre’s have seen 11, 7 and 9 (average 9.0), which aligns closely with the predicted corners figure. Both teams are capable of sustained spell of pressure rather than constant waves, so a total around 9–10 corners suits their relatively balanced, not overly direct, playing styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 21.74, suggesting a contest with chances but not a barrage. Lorient’s recent games have seen them involved in matches with 25, 18 and 24 total shots, while Auxerre’s last three show 20, 27 and 20 attempts. That fits neatly with the shots prediction: a match in the low-20s for total efforts, in line with Lorient’s 1.95 xG and Auxerre’s 0.862 xG averages, implying a steady rather than explosive attacking tempo.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s superior league position, stronger attacking metrics and defensive solidity at home give them a clear edge over an Auxerre side still searching for consistency in the final third. The key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre can turn limited attacking volume into efficient chances; if not, Lorient’s more reliable chance creation should be enough to justify the strong home-win prediction.

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