Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lorient vs Strasbourg Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lorient

Home Team
41%
VS

Strasbourg

Away Team
34%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Lorient W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)

Strasbourg L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lorient

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 1

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 2.12
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lorient are marginally favoured at home, with a 41.0% chance of victory compared to Strasbourg’s 34.0%, and the model edging towards a home win despite only two points separating them in the table (Strasbourg 8th on 43 points, Lorient 9th on 41). The game is projected to be tight and relatively low scoring, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% implied probability. A draw remains a live option at 24.0%, but the slight expected spread leans towards Lorient.

Match Analysis

Lorient come into this on a quietly solid run: a 2-0 home win over Marseille, a 0-2 defeat away at Lyon, and a 1-1 draw with Paris FC. All three matches were controlled affairs in terms of scoreline, never going above two total goals. Defensively, they’ve been hard to break down recently, conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their last five, with xG against at 1.384 showing they’re limiting clear chances reasonably well, if not completely shutting teams out. Strasbourg’s recent form has been more volatile but dangerous going forward: a 3-1 win over Nice, a 3-2 victory at Nantes and then a humbling 0-3 home loss to Rennes. They’re averaging 2.0 goals scored over their last five with an impressive 2.116 xG per game, but conceding 1.4 on average with 1.432 xG against suggests an open, risk-taking approach. That contrast – Lorient’s controlled, low-scoring pattern versus Strasbourg’s more expansive, higher-scoring games – sets up a classic clash of styles with European-chasing Strasbourg trying to pull away from the mid-table pack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 46.0% probability for over, meaning the under 2.5 is slightly preferred. All three of Lorient’s recent matches finished with exactly two goals (2-0, 0-2, 1-1), so 0 out of 3 went over 2.5, matching their average 1.8 scored and just 0.8 conceded and xG figures that point to measured, controlled games. Strasbourg are the opposite: 2 of their last 3 went over 2.5 (3-1 vs Nice, 3-2 vs Nantes, then 0-3 vs Rennes), but with both sides’ xG against numbers hovering around 1.4, the over 2.5 prediction is not favoured here in what could become more of a cautious mid-table duel.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest total, with expected total corners at 8.82. Lorient’s last three have seen 8, 10 and 11 corners respectively, often allowing opponents more (1-7 vs Marseille, 6-4 at Lyon, 5-6 vs Paris FC), suggesting they’re not a relentless crossing side. Strasbourg’s games have been more varied on this front – 11, 14 and 9 corners (2-9 vs Rennes, 4-10 vs Nice, 6-3 at Nantes) – but the predicted corners suggest that, despite their attacking intent, this might settle closer to a compact tactical battle than a constant end-to-end siege.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 23.19, indicating a game with a decent but not frantic tempo. Lorient’s last three produced 11, 12 and 10 attempts of their own, while facing 16, 11 and 7, which fits their balanced profile. Strasbourg have shown more volatility, firing 16, 13 and 9 shots while conceding 8, 14 and a hefty 26 against Rennes; that aligns with their strong attacking xG (2.116) but also a willingness to trade chances. The shots prediction and expected shots tally match a scenario where both teams create but without turning this into a constant shooting gallery.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lorient wins by X goals. Negative = Strasbourg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lorient vs Strasbourg with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lorient vs Strasbourg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.16 in favour of Lorient, reflecting only a very narrow home advantage. Over the last three, Lorient’s goal difference is +1 (2-0, 0-2, 1-1), while Strasbourg sit at +1 as well (3-1, 3-2, 0-3), underlining how evenly matched they are. With Lorient slightly favoured in the win probabilities and boasting the better recent defensive numbers, the expected spread tips just enough towards the hosts to back them by a small margin.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s edge comes from their recent defensive solidity and home form, combined with a model that narrowly backs them in a close encounter. Strasbourg’s sharper attack could easily tilt things the other way, but their openness also leaves gaps. The key factor to watch will be whether Strasbourg can impose their high-chance, high-xG style, or if Lorient drag the contest into the kind of tight, under-2.5 battle that suits them.

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