Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lyon

Home Team
66%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Lyon W W D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Auxerre D D D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 3

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.11
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are clear favourites at home, with a 66.0% win probability compared to just 16.0% for Auxerre, and the model leans towards a home victory. The over 2.5 prediction is also tilted towards goals, with a 52.0% chance of the game going over the line. In the table, Lyon sit firmly in the Champions League race in 3rd place on 54 points, while Auxerre are 16th on 25 points and still hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Lyon arrive in strong form and with momentum: a statement 2-1 win away at leaders Paris SG, followed by a solid 2-0 home success over Lorient, then a controlled 0-0 draw at Angers. Across those three games they’ve taken seven points, conceded just once, and shown they can edge tight contests as well as shut matches down when needed. Their recent five-game numbers back that up: 1.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded on average, plus three clean sheets, even if they’ve actually allowed more expected goals against (1.818 xGA) than they’ve generated themselves (1.502 xG). Auxerre, by contrast, are drawing a lot of games but struggling to climb away from danger. Three straight draws — 2-2 at Monaco, 0-0 at home to Nantes, and 1-1 at Le Havre — show resilience but also a lack of killer instinct. Their last five games bring 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, backed by 1.296 xG for and 1.112 xG against, which suggests a side that can compete but rarely dominates. Against a top-three side away from home, their margin for error will be slim.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here with a 52.0% probability, pointing to a match that is slightly more likely to open up than become a grind. Only 1 of Lyon’s last 3 matches has gone over 2.5 goals (the 2-1 at Paris SG), with the other two staying under, while Auxerre have also seen just 1 of their last 3 go over (the 2-2 at Monaco). Still, Lyon’s 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, combined with Auxerre’s 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded and both teams’ xG profiles, support the idea that chances should be there for a three-goal game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.81, suggesting around 10 corners in this corners prediction. Lyon’s last three outings produced 9, 10 and 10 corners respectively, showing a consistent pattern of matches sitting around this mark. Auxerre’s games have been close to that band too, with corner totals of 14, 5 and 10. Lyon’s willingness to attack at home and Auxerre’s tendency to absorb pressure and break should naturally generate a steady flow of predicted corners rather than an extreme tally.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points towards 24.38 expected shots in total, which fits what both sides have shown recently. Lyon’s last three games featured combined shot counts of 29, 23 and 18, while Auxerre’s produced 27, 18 and 22. Given Lyon’s 1.502 expected goals and Auxerre’s 1.296 xG across their last five matches, a mid-20s volume of expected shots looks aligned with two teams who create regularly without being relentlessly high-volume every week.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lyon wins by X goals. Negative = Auxerre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lyon vs Auxerre with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lyon vs Auxerre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sets an expected spread of +0.81 in Lyon’s favour, effectively calling for a home win by about a one-goal margin. Lyon’s recent scores — +1 at Paris SG, +2 against Lorient, then level at Angers — mirror that expectation of a narrow but clear edge. Auxerre’s trio of draws, with a combined goal difference of 0, underlines their knack for staying in games but rarely outclassing opponents, which fits a scenario where Lyon’s superior quality and league position should tilt a tight match their way.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s blend of recent results, defensive solidity and home advantage gives them a clear edge over an Auxerre side that competes but struggles to finish teams off. With both teams posting respectable attacking numbers, the key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre can withstand Lyon’s pressure for 90 minutes or whether the home side’s extra cutting edge finally breaks their run of draws.

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