Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Monaco Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lyon

Home Team
54%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
24%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Lyon D D L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)

Monaco W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.32
# Clean Sheets: 2

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.14
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 54.0% chance of victory compared to Monaco’s 24.0%, and the draw at 22.0%. The model points towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction for goals (53.0% probability), suggesting an open game rather than a cagey tactical battle. In the Ligue 1 standings, Lyon sit 4th on 47 points, with Monaco chasing in 6th on 43 points, adding real weight to this clash in the race for Europe.

Match Analysis

Lyon come into this fixture on a three-game winless run in the league – draws against Paris FC (1-1) and Le Havre (0-0), plus a dramatic 3-2 defeat at Marseille. The performances, though, have not been disastrous: they’ve created chances (13 and 14 shots in their last two games) and their recent five-match average of 1.4 goals scored per game is backed by a strong 2.028 expected goals. Defensively, they’ve been relatively solid too, conceding just 0.4 goals on average in that same period and keeping two clean sheets in their last five. Monaco arrive in far better immediate form, riding a three-match winning streak – 2-0 vs Brest, an impressive 3-1 away at Paris SG, and 2-0 against Angers. Those wins underline their efficiency: 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average in the last five, with 1.486 xG for and 1.14 xG against. They’ve also recorded two clean sheets in that stretch, suggesting a more balanced side than earlier in the season, when their 45 goals scored and 37 conceded over 26 games made them more chaotic. The contrast is between a Lyon side with strong underlying numbers but patchy results and a Monaco side whose current momentum is excellent but built on slightly more modest xG.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a 53.0% probability, edging out the under, and the data leans that way. Two of Lyon’s last three league games have gone under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Le Havre, 1-1 vs Paris FC), with only the 3-2 defeat in Marseille going over. For Monaco, all three of their recent matches have landed under 2.5 (2-0, 3-1, 2-0 all total exactly or under three goals), but both teams’ five-game averages – 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded for Lyon, 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded for Monaco – plus xG figures of 2.028 and 1.486 respectively, suggest enough attacking output to justify expecting three or more goals over the 90 minutes.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.64 total corners, hinting at a game with steady but not extreme attacking volume from wide areas. Lyon’s last three outings produced 4, 10 and 9 total corners; they can both win and concede corners depending on game state, with that 8-2 count versus Paris FC showing what happens when they press high. Monaco’s recent matches brought 11, 10 and 7 corners in total, which fits a side that attacks but doesn’t constantly overload the flanks. With both teams capable of sustained pressure but not purely wing-driven, predicted corners just under double figures feels in line with their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 24.88, suggesting a match with regular but not manic goalmouth action. Lyon’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 25 (vs Le Havre), 28 (vs Paris FC) and 30 (vs Marseille), so this shots prediction is slightly conservative relative to their recent tempo. Monaco’s last three produced 23, 31 and 16 shots in total, and when you match that with their 1.486 xG and Lyon’s 2.028 xG over the last five, it points to two sides who don’t need a huge volume of attempts to create decent chances.

Final Prediction

Lyon are given the edge primarily because of home advantage and stronger recent underlying numbers in attack, even if the raw results haven’t fully reflected their play. Monaco’s form and three straight wins make them a dangerous opponent, but the data still leans Lyon’s way. The key factor to watch will be how Monaco’s improving defence copes with Lyon’s chance creation; if the visitors can blunt that early, the balance of the game – and the Champions League race – could shift quickly.

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