Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Auxerre Prediction - 13 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Marseille

Home Team
82%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 48 21 27 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 52 33 19 46
4 Lyon 25 14 4 7 40 27 13 46
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 42 35 7 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 38 32 6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 43 37 6 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 40 31 9 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 34 34 0 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 35 39 -4 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 23 30 -7 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 33 29 4 31
13 Paris FC 25 6 9 10 29 41 -12 27
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 20 32 -12 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 30 48 -18 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 19 35 -16 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 22 56 -34 13

Recent Trends

Marseille W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 5)

Auxerre D D L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 2.06
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are clear favourites here, with an 82.0% probability of victory against an Auxerre side given just 8.0%, and the draw at 10.0%. The model points firmly towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (54.0% chance) at the Vélodrome. In the table, Marseille sit 3rd on 46 points and are pushing for the Champions League, while Auxerre are 16th with 19 points and fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Marseille come into this one on the back of two wins in their last three league games: a gritty 1-0 away success at Toulouse and a dramatic 3-2 home victory over Lyon, bookended by a 0-2 defeat at Brest. Those matches underline a side that can dominate the ball and chances – 18 shots against Lyon and 17 at Brest – but is still prone to defensive lapses. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG numbers of 1.528 for and a worrying 2.06 against, hinting that opponents are creating plenty of good openings even when Marseille are winning. Auxerre, by contrast, are scrapping for survival and their form reflects that: two draws (0-0 at home to Strasbourg and 2-2 away to Lorient) followed by a 0-3 home defeat to Rennes. They are managing to stay competitive in games – their last three all saw reasonably balanced shot counts – but they lack cutting edge and resilience, with only 19 goals scored all season and a -16 goal difference. Their recent averages (1.0 goal scored, 1.2 conceded, xG 1.026 for and 1.348 against over the last five) show a team that creates just enough to be dangerous but not enough to consistently hurt a top‑three side away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Marseille’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Lyon, 0-2 at Brest), while one of Auxerre’s last three has gone over (2-2 at Lorient) and the other two were unders (0-0 vs Strasbourg, 0-3 vs Rennes – still three goals total). With Marseille averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Auxerre at 1.0 for and 1.2 against, plus both sides’ xG figures hovering around a goal or more per game, the balance tips slightly towards another game with at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.35, suggesting a contest with regular attacking phases but not an extreme number of set-piece situations. Marseille’s last three games produced 10, 9 and 5 corners respectively, with OM themselves swinging in 2, 8 and 2, highlighting how their attacking intensity – especially at home versus Lyon – can drive the corners count up. Auxerre have seen 9, 10 and 9 corners in their last three (5, 7 and 4 in their favour), indicating that even in more cautious games they still generate a decent amount of wide pressure. Put together, their styles point towards a corners prediction close to the 9–10 range, in line with the 9.35 expectation.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.15, which matches what we’ve seen from both sides recently. Marseille’s last three outings featured 10, 18 and 17 attempts, while Auxerre’s produced 10, 10 and 11, so a combined tally in the low- to mid‑20s looks realistic. Given Marseille’s higher attacking xG (1.528) and Auxerre’s ability to at least register efforts (1.026 xG on average), the shots prediction fits a game where the hosts do most of the pressing but Auxerre still carve out a handful of chances.

Final Prediction

Marseille have the clear edge through superior league position, more firepower, and home advantage, all reflected in that 82.0% win probability. Auxerre’s more modest attacking numbers and relegation‑battle fragility make this a daunting trip. The key factor to watch will be how often Marseille can turn territorial dominance into clear chances; if they maintain the shot volume they’ve shown recently at the Vélodrome, Auxerre may struggle to hang on.

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