Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Nice Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Marseille

Home Team
81%
VS

Nice

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +1.4

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Marseille L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Nice D D L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Nice

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.46
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are strong favourites at the Vélodrome, with an 81.0% chance of victory against a Nice side given just a 9.0% probability of an upset; the draw is rated at 11.0%. The model points firmly towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (59.0% probability). In the table, Marseille sit 6th on 52 points, chasing the top-three pack, while Nice languish in 15th on 29 points and are still uncomfortably close to the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Marseille’s recent form has been volatile but attacking. In their last three, they beat Metz 3-1 at home but lost 2-0 at Lorient and 2-1 at Monaco, creating plenty of chances in all three: 16, 18 and 19 shots respectively, and a big corner advantage in each match. Across the last five games they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed up by 1.778 expected goals (xG) for and 1.324 xG against, suggesting a side that consistently creates more than it allows, even if the defensive line isn’t entirely watertight. Nice arrive in Marseille struggling to turn performances into wins. They’ve drawn their last two (0-0 at Lille, 1-1 at home to Le Havre) and lost 3-1 at Strasbourg, with just 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average over the last five. Their attacking output is modest at 0.936 xG per match, while they allow 1.462 xG, a balance that underlines why they are 15th and only seven points above the drop zone. Two clean sheets in that stretch show they can dig in, but the overall trend is of a side more often under pressure than in control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a 59.0% probability, and the numbers support it. Two of Marseille’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 v Metz, 1-2 at Monaco), with only the 2-0 defeat at Lorient ending just under; their 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, plus xG figures on both sides of the ball, point towards another open contest. For Nice, two of their last three were under 2.5 (0-0 at Lille, 1-1 v Le Havre) and one over (1-3 at Strasbourg), but their tendency to concede more xG than they generate hints that if Marseille’s attack clicks, the total can be pushed beyond the 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction is 9.34 total corners, in line with recent trends. Marseille have been corner machines: 7-1 at Lorient, 7-4 v Metz and 8-0 at Monaco underline how their front-foot style forces opponents back and produces a steady stream of set pieces. Nice’s last three – 3-5 at Lille, 5-2 v Le Havre, 10-4 at Strasbourg – show that, whether on top or under pressure, their games also generate plenty of flag kicks, so the predicted corners figure around nine looks well judged.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.83, and both sides’ recent numbers point in that direction. Marseille have taken 16, 18 and 19 shots in their last three, while allowing 11, 6 and 7 – high-volume matches that match their strong attacking xG profile. Nice’s last three outings (5 and 9 shots against Lille, 15-11 v Le Havre, 8-16 at Strasbourg) show mixed attacking output but regular shooting opportunities at both ends, which aligns with this shots prediction and the expectation of Marseille carrying most of the attacking load.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Marseille wins by X goals. Negative = Nice wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Marseille vs Nice with expected spread of +1.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Marseille vs Nice
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Marseille -1.4, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly a goal and a half. Across their last three games, Marseille have a combined goal difference of 0 (4 scored, 5 conceded), but that flat number hides the dominance they’ve shown in attempts and corners. Nice, by contrast, have scored just twice and conceded four in that same span, consistent with their negative overall goal difference of -22 this season. Coupled with the 81.0% home-win probability and Marseille’s stronger offensive and xG profile, the expected spread looks justified.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s superior attacking metrics, home advantage and league position give them a clear edge over a Nice side still searching for fluency in the final third. If Marseille maintain their shot and corner dominance, their pressure should eventually tell on the scoreboard. The key factor to watch will be how long Nice’s defence can resist sustained waves of attacks at the Vélodrome; if the visitors crack early, this could turn into exactly the kind of high-scoring home win the numbers predict.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel