Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Marseille

Home Team
77%
VS

Strasbourg

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Marseille L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)

Strasbourg L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 0

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.57
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points against Strasbourg, who are given just a 10.0% chance, with the draw at 12.0%. The model expects a Marseille win (home result) in a game leaning towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%. In the table, Marseille sit 4th on 39 points, pushing for the Champions League places, while Strasbourg are 7th with 30 points and chasing the European spots from a bit further back.

Match Analysis

Marseille come into this one off a mixed but generally positive run. Their last three matches show a heavy 0-5 defeat away to Paris SG, a 2-2 draw at Paris FC, and a strong 3-1 home win over high-flying Lens. That sequence (W–D–L) reflects a side that can score freely but is also vulnerable at the back: 5 goals scored and 8 conceded across those games. Over the last five matches they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with expected goals at 1.79 for and 1.582 against, underlining their attacking threat even if they haven’t kept a single clean sheet in that period. Strasbourg’s recent form has been similarly inconsistent, with a 4-1 away win at Lille sandwiched between 1-2 defeats to Le Havre (away) and Paris SG (home). That L–L–W pattern shows they can be dangerous on the counter, but they also allow plenty of chances: 6 goals conceded and 6 scored in those three matches. Over their last five, Strasbourg are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 1.192 for and 1.57 against, suggesting they tend to give opponents decent opportunities. With both teams failing to register a clean sheet in their last five games, the numbers point to an open contest where Marseille’s superior firepower and league position should tilt the balance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Marseille’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Paris FC, 3-1 vs Lens), with only the 0-5 loss also clearly producing a high total; every one of those three actually had at least four goals in total. Strasbourg have also seen all of their last three matches go over 2.5 goals (1-2, 1-2, 4-1). With Marseille averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded and Strasbourg at 1.2 both scored and conceded, combined with xG numbers that hover near or above 1.5 against for both, an attacking, chance-filled match is much more likely than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this game sit at 9.0 in total, pointing to a moderate but active contest in wide areas. Marseille’s last three matches produced corner counts of 2-5, 4-4, and 2-2, suggesting balanced but not extreme corner volumes. Strasbourg’s recent games saw 3-9, 5-6, and 1-8 in corners, where they frequently allowed opponents a high number. With Marseille likely to be the more front-foot side at home and Strasbourg often defending deep and conceding wide pressure, a corners prediction around 9.0 matches both teams’ recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash are 24.94 in total, hinting at a game with plenty of attempts on goal. Marseille’s last three outings saw them take 9, 18 and 10 shots while facing 22, 9 and 7, confirming that their matches tend to be open, especially against strong opposition. Strasbourg have taken 10, 9 and 15 shots in their last three while conceding 15, 13 and 20, again showing a high volume of efforts at both ends. Given both sides’ xG profiles (Marseille 1.79 for, 1.582 against; Strasbourg 1.192 for, 1.57 against), a shots prediction around 25 feels consistent with the likelihood of sustained attacking phases and regular attempts on target.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s superior league position, stronger attacking numbers, and home advantage explain why they are such strong favourites to win. Strasbourg can threaten, but their tendency to concede chances and corners away from home may be decisive. The key factor to watch will be how Strasbourg’s defence copes with Marseille’s attacking rhythm and volume of shots over 90 minutes.

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