Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Brest Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Metz

Home Team
15%
VS

Brest

Away Team
70%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 23.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Metz L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 5)

Brest W D W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.67
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are clear favourites here, with a 70.0% chance of taking all three points away to bottom‑placed Metz, who have just 15.0% probability of a home win and the same chance of a draw. The model points towards a Brest victory combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction, with only a 41.0% chance of the match going over that line. Brest come into this from 11th place on 30 points, while Metz sit 18th with 13 points and a damaging goal difference of -30.

Match Analysis

Metz arrive in deep trouble and short on confidence. They have lost heavily to Paris SG (0-3) and Auxerre (1-3) and only managed a goalless draw at home to Lille, taking just one point from their last three games. Across those matches they have been outshot in every outing (3–17 at PSG, 13–14 vs Auxerre, 6–16 vs Lille), underlining how often they are on the back foot. The recent numbers back up the eye test: in their last five games they’ve scored just 1.0 goal per match while conceding 2.4, with an average xG for of 0.836 and xG against of 1.774, and only one clean sheet in that span. Brest, by contrast, look organised and efficient rather than spectacular. They’ve beaten Lorient (2-0) and Marseille (2-0) and drawn away at Lille (1-1), taking seven points from their last three while keeping two clean sheets. They have allowed plenty of shots lately (17 from Marseille, 20 from Lille, 13 from Lorient), but have managed games well and taken their chances, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five. Their xG figures – 1.144 for and 1.668 against – suggest tight games where small details matter, but they are currently making those details count far better than Metz.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, with only a 41.0% probability of the game going over 2.5 goals. Two of Metz’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (0-3 vs PSG, 1-3 vs Auxerre), but the most recent was a 0-0, and their low attacking averages – 1.0 goal scored per game and 0.836 xG – point to limited firepower. Brest’s last three have all finished under 3.0 total goals (2-0, 1-1, 2-0), and with their xG for (1.144) and against (1.668) both relatively modest, the under 2.5 angle looks the stronger over 2.5 prediction in this matchup.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Metz
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly average game, with expected total corners at 9.01. Metz have been involved in low to mid‑range corner counts recently: 5 vs PSG (1-4), 7 vs Auxerre (4-3), and 7 vs Lille (1-6), reflecting a team that spends long periods defending. Brest’s last three have produced 5 corners vs Marseille (3-2), a huge 14 at Lille (1-13), and 14 vs Lorient (7-7), suggesting that when they get on the front foot or are pushed back, corners pile up. With Brest likely to control territory, predicted corners around nine feels in line with an away side probing but not relentlessly camped in the Metz box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Metz
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.67 expected shots in total, indicating a game with a reasonable amount of action but not a barrage. Metz’s last three outings produced 3, 13 and 6 shots for, but they faced 17, 14 and 16, which matches their defensive frailty. Brest, meanwhile, have taken 12, 11 and 11 shots while allowing 17, 20 and 13, aligning with their xG profile of 1.144 for and 1.668 against. Put together, the expected shots total suggests Brest should generate the clearer chances, with Metz largely reacting.

Final Prediction

Brest’s superior recent form, more solid underlying numbers and Metz’s defensive record of 52 goals conceded in 23 games all tilt this heavily in favour of the visitors. Even if the scoreline stays narrow, Brest look far more likely to control the key phases. The crucial factor to watch will be whether Metz can withstand Brest’s pressure without early damage; if they concede first, their fragile confidence and leaky back line could decide this contest quickly.

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