Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Nice Prediction - 9 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Metz

Home Team
37%
VS

Nice

Away Team
38%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 11 7 3 1 21 9 12 24
2 Marseille 11 7 1 3 25 11 14 22
3 Lens 11 7 1 3 17 10 7 22
4 Lille 11 6 2 3 23 13 10 20
5 Monaco 11 6 2 3 23 17 6 20
6 Lyon 11 6 2 3 16 12 4 20
7 Strasbourg 11 6 1 4 22 16 6 19
8 Nice 11 5 2 4 16 16 0 17
9 Toulouse 11 4 3 4 17 15 2 15
10 Rennes 11 3 6 2 18 17 1 15
11 Paris FC 11 4 2 5 18 20 -2 14
12 Le Havre 11 3 4 4 12 16 -4 13
13 Brest 11 2 4 5 14 18 -4 10
14 Angers 11 2 4 5 8 15 -7 10
15 Nantes 11 2 3 6 10 17 -7 9
16 Lorient 11 2 3 6 13 25 -12 9
17 Metz 11 2 2 7 10 26 -16 8
18 Auxerre 11 2 1 8 7 17 -10 7

Recent Trends

Metz W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)

Nice L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 2

Nice

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 1.94
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

In an intriguing Ligue 1 encounter, Nice is slightly favored to edge past Metz with a 38.0% probability of winning, compared to a 37.0% chance for Metz. The likelihood of a draw stands at 24.0%. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with a 47.0% probability of under 2.5 goals. Currently, Nice sits in 8th place in the league standings, while Metz is struggling in 17th, hovering just above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Metz has shown a mixed bag of results in their recent outings. They secured two impressive victories against Nantes and Lens, both by 2-0 margins, indicating a robust defensive performance. However, their 6-1 demolition by Lille highlights vulnerabilities that could be exploited. Metz's recent performances are reflected in their average goals scored (0.6) and conceded (1.0) in the last five games, with an expected goals figure of 1.122, suggesting they might be slightly underperforming offensively. Nice, on the other hand, has had a more consistent run, with two wins out of their last three matches. They defeated Lille and Rennes, scoring twice in each game, but narrowly lost to Paris SG. Their average of 1.2 goals scored per game suggests a more potent attack than Metz, though defensively, they have conceded 2.2 goals per game, which is an area of concern. Their expected goals stats mirror this, with 1.078 expected to be scored and 1.944 expected to be conceded, indicating a defensive frailty that Metz could potentially exploit.

Final Prediction

Nice's slight edge in the prediction comes from their more consistent attacking displays and current league standing. A key factor to watch will be their defensive resilience, as it could determine whether they capitalize on Metz's inconsistencies. With both teams capable of surprise performances, this match promises to be a fascinating battle of tactics and strategy.

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