Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Toulouse Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Metz

Home Team
4%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
90%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 48 21 27 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 52 33 19 46
4 Lyon 25 14 4 7 40 27 13 46
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 42 35 7 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 38 32 6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 43 37 6 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 40 31 9 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 34 34 0 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 35 39 -4 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 23 30 -7 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 33 29 4 31
13 Paris FC 25 6 9 10 29 41 -12 27
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 20 32 -12 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 30 48 -18 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 19 35 -16 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 22 56 -34 13

Recent Trends

Metz L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)

Toulouse L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

xG (avg) 0.89
xGA (avg) 1.77
Clean Sheets 1

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.44
xGA (avg) 0.84
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are strong favourites here: the model gives them a massive 90.0% chance of taking all three points away at bottom‑placed Metz, who sit 18th with just 13 points from 25 games, while Toulouse are 12th on 31 points. The game leans towards a tight affair rather than a shoot‑out, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 58% implied probability and a goal being scored at 51%.

Match Analysis

Metz come into this in full crisis mode: three straight defeats, no goals scored and seven conceded against Lens (0-3), Brest (0-1) and Paris SG (0-3). The underlying pattern is worrying: they’ve been outshot heavily twice (5-24 at Lens, 3-17 at PSG) and even in their “better” outing against Brest they lost 0-1 despite a big 24-6 shot advantage and 12-4 corners. Over their last five, Metz average just 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded, with only 0.89 expected goals (xG) created per match and 1.77 xG allowed, underlining a side that struggles both to fashion chances and to keep opponents at arm’s length. Toulouse aren’t flying, but they look far more solid. They’ve taken just one point from their last three (0-1 v Marseille, 0-1 at Rennes, 1-1 v Paris FC), yet those scorelines show how tight their games have been. They matched or outshot their opponents in all three (12-10, 9-10, 23-5 respectively), and across the last five they average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. The xG numbers back up that improvement: 1.44 xG created and just 0.844 xG conceded on average suggest a well‑organised side that generally controls the quality of chances at both ends, even if the recent results haven’t fully rewarded them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome, with only a 42.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, making under 2.5 the favoured call. All three of Metz’s recent matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-3, 0-1, 0-3), and all three of Toulouse’s games also stayed under (0-1, 0-1, 1-1), which strongly supports the under 2.5 prediction. Combined averages of 1.0 and 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 and 0.8 conceded respectively, along with modest xG figures (0.89 for Metz, 1.44 for Toulouse), point towards a low‑scoring grind rather than a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Metz
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.17 total, which fits recent patterns. Metz’s last three have produced 10, 16 and 5 corners (averaging just over 10), with one match – the Brest defeat – becoming a corner‑heavy siege as they chased the game (12 corners for Metz alone). Toulouse’s last three yielded 6, 7 and a huge 15 corners, driven by their attacking initiative against Paris FC (12-3 in corners). With Toulouse likely to control territory but both sides capable of spells of pressure, a figure around the predicted corners tally of nine feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Metz
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.91, which aligns well with the recent shot volumes of both teams. Metz have been wildly inconsistent, posting 24 shots v Brest but only 5 at Lens and 3 at PSG, while Toulouse have been more balanced with 12, 9 and 23 in their last three. Given Toulouse’s stronger xG profile (1.44 xG per game) and Metz’s tendency either to sit deep or to shoot often when behind, a shots prediction around 24 looks a fair reflection of the likely pattern.

Final Prediction

Toulouse’s superiority in the table, their much healthier goal difference, and a recent run of controlled, low‑margin games give them a clear edge over a Metz side rooted to the bottom and struggling badly in both boxes. The key factor to watch will be whether Metz can generate anything like the attacking volume they managed against Brest, or if Toulouse’s compact, efficient play smothers them and turns this into another narrow but comfortable away win.

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