Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Angers Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Monaco

Home Team
87%
VS

Angers

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Monaco W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Angers L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 3

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.63
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.40
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are strong favourites here, with an 87.0% probability of a home win against Angers’ modest 6.0% chance, and they look well placed to consolidate their 8th place standing against the 12th-placed visitors. The game leans towards goals: the model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 53.0% probability. A Monaco victory is the expected outcome, keeping them in the hunt for the European spots in a tight mid-table cluster.

Match Analysis

Monaco arrive in good form: two wins and a draw from their last three, including an impressive 3-2 away success at 2nd-placed Lens and a confident 3-1 home win over Nantes. The only slip in that run was a goalless draw at Nice, which still underlines a growing defensive solidity. Across their last five, Monaco average 2.0 goals scored and only 1.4 conceded, with three clean sheets and xG figures (1.448 for, 1.21 against) that back up a balanced, effective side rather than one riding its luck. Angers, in contrast, are grinding rather than flowing. They’ve lost two of their last three (0-1 vs Lille, 0-2 at Lorient) and edged a tight 1-0 home win over Toulouse. That run has been defined by low-scoring, cagey games, and their recent averages reinforce the picture: just 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over the last five, with three clean sheets but an xG for of only 0.628 and xG against at 1.396. Angers are keeping games close, but they’re consistently second-best on the underlying numbers, which is a concern away to a Monaco side that creates more and finishes better.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% is backed mainly by Monaco’s attacking profile. Two of Monaco’s last three league matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Lens, 3-1 vs Nantes), with only the 0-0 at Nice landing under 2.5. Angers, by contrast, have seen all of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-0, 0-2, 0-1), reflecting their modest attacking output. Still, Monaco’s average of 2.0 scored and their xG of 1.448 suggest they can push this fixture beyond the 2.5 line even if Angers remain conservative.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.34 total, a mid-to-high number that fits the recent patterns of both sides. Monaco’s last three have produced 9, 12 and 8 corners respectively, as they both attack and allow opponents to get forward, totalling 17 corners for and 18 against in that spell. Angers have been involved in lower-corner games (8, 5, 6), but their tendency to soak up pressure should see Monaco rack up a good share of the predicted corners through sustained attacking phases, especially at home.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots at 24.24 overall, this match should see a steady stream of attempts rather than a siege. Monaco’s last three outings have generated 10, 12 and 10 shots for, while they’ve faced 18, 13 and 13, confirming an open style that naturally drives up the shots prediction. Angers have been more restrained, with 6, 10 and 12 shots taken, and similar numbers conceded, but their higher xG against (1.396) suggests they tend to give up quality chances – exactly what Monaco’s attack thrives on.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s sharper attack, better underlying numbers and recent results against stronger opposition give them a clear edge over Angers. If the home side impose their tempo early, their superior chance creation should tell over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Angers’ compact defence and recent run of clean sheets can resist sustained Monaco pressure, or whether the hosts’ firepower breaks the game open.

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