Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Brest Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Monaco

Home Team
73%
VS

Brest

Away Team
12%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 48 21 27 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 52 33 19 46
4 Lyon 25 14 4 7 40 27 13 46
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 42 35 7 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 38 32 6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 43 37 6 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 40 31 9 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 34 34 0 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 35 39 -4 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 23 30 -7 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 33 29 4 31
13 Paris FC 25 6 9 10 29 41 -12 27
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 20 32 -12 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 30 48 -18 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 19 35 -16 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 22 56 -34 13

Recent Trends

Monaco W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)

Brest W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 1.65
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 2

Brest

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 1.75
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are clear favourites at home, with a 73.0% chance of taking all three points against Brest, who are given just a 12.0% probability of an upset, with the draw at 15.0%. The model leans towards goals, backing an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%. In the table, Monaco sit 7th on 40 points, four ahead of 9th-placed Brest on 36, with both clubs still eyeing a late push towards the European spots.

Match Analysis

Monaco arrive in form and with real momentum: three straight wins, and significantly all against strong or awkward opponents. They have beaten Paris SG 3–1 away, Angers 2–0 at home and Lens 3–2 away, showing they can win both open shootouts and more controlled games. Over their last five, they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed by 1.654 expected goals for and only 1.036 against, underlining a side that consistently creates enough and generally gives up fewer clear chances than they allow goals. Brest, though, are on an impressive run of their own, also coming into this with three straight clean-sheet victories: 2–0 vs Le Havre, 1–0 at Metz and 2–0 against Marseille. Interestingly, the underlying numbers hint at a team riding its luck defensively: they concede 1.6 goals on average over the last five and 1.754 expected goals against, yet have kept four clean sheets in that span. Offensively they are more modest at 1.2 goals and 1.134 xG per game, suggesting a less explosive attack than Monaco’s and one that may struggle if forced to chase.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a 54.0% probability, and the recent scorelines slightly favour that view. Two of Monaco’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3–1 at Paris SG and 3–2 at Lens), with only the 2–0 against Angers falling under. By contrast, all three of Brest’s recent games finished under 2.5 (2–0, 1–0, 2–0), but their defensive xG of 1.754 conceded per game suggests they have allowed enough chances that a more clinical opponent like Monaco could break through more frequently. With Monaco averaging 2.2 scored and Brest 1.6 conceded, over 2.5 goals looks slightly more likely than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.64, pointing to a contest with a steady but not extreme volume of set-piece situations. Monaco’s last three have featured 10, 7 and 9 total corners, while Brest’s have produced 4, 16 and 5, showing significant variance depending on game state and opponent. Given Monaco’s attacking intent at home and Brest’s tendency to sit deeper yet allow pressure (particularly evident in their trip to Metz, where corners finished 4–12), this corners prediction around 10 feels consistent with two sides prepared to attack but not relentlessly bombard from wide areas for 90 minutes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.19 suggests a reasonably open match without turning into a shooting gallery. Monaco’s recent games have seen them take 11, 10 and 10 shots while facing 20, 6 and 18, numbers that match their strong xG profile going forward but also a willingness to accept risks. Brest have attempted 11, 6 and 12 shots and conceded 14, 24 and 17, which fits with their 1.134 xG for and 1.754 xG against. This shots prediction points to Monaco generating the majority of efforts, with Brest relying on fewer, more selective attacks.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s superior attacking numbers, home advantage and recent wins over top sides give them a clear edge over a Brest team whose recent clean sheets are not fully backed by the underlying chances they concede. If Brest’s defence finally regresses towards those xG figures, Monaco’s frontline should be in position to capitalise. A key factor to watch will be how long Brest can resist early pressure; if Monaco score first, the game could quickly open up in their favour.

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