Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Le Havre Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nice

Home Team
52%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 28 15 5 8 45 34 11 50
4 Marseille 28 15 4 9 55 37 18 49
5 Monaco 28 15 4 9 49 39 10 49
6 Lyon 28 14 6 8 41 29 12 48
7 Rennes 28 13 8 7 47 40 7 47
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 28 9 11 8 38 42 -4 38
10 Toulouse 28 10 7 11 39 35 4 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Angers 28 9 6 13 24 37 -13 33
13 Paris FC 28 7 11 10 33 44 -11 32
14 Le Havre 28 6 10 12 23 36 -13 28
15 Nice 28 7 6 15 33 55 -22 27
16 Auxerre 28 5 8 15 23 37 -14 23
17 Nantes 27 4 6 17 24 45 -21 18
18 Metz 28 3 6 19 25 60 -35 15

Recent Trends

Nice L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)

Le Havre D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

xG (avg) 1.45
xGA (avg) 2.11
Clean Sheets 1

Le Havre

xG (avg) 0.91
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nice are slight favourites at home, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points against a Le Havre side given a 25.0% win probability (23.0% draw). Despite sitting 15th, one point behind 14th-placed Le Havre in Ligue 1, Nice are backed to make home advantage count. The game leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction supported by a 54.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Nice come into this under pressure after two heavy defeats in their last three league outings: a 0-4 home loss to Paris SG and a 1-3 defeat away at Strasbourg. The solitary bright spot was a controlled 2-0 win at Angers, showing they can still put together a solid away performance. Their recent pattern is volatile – eight, four and two total match goals in those three fixtures – underlining both their defensive frailty and capacity to be involved in open games. Le Havre have been harder to beat but struggle to turn performances into wins: a 1-1 draw with Auxerre, a 0-0 against Lyon, and a narrow 2-3 loss at Paris FC. They’ve stayed competitive in every match, with shot counts broadly balanced (10-12, 20-15, 12-13), suggesting they don’t get overrun, but their lack of cutting edge keeps them in the relegation picture. Recent advanced numbers back that up: just 0.6 goals scored on average in their last five, from 0.908 expected goals, while conceding 1.8 from 1.91 xG. From an analytics angle, Nice have more attacking upside: they average 1.0 goal and 1.454 xG per game over their last five, but leak 2.6 goals from 2.112 xG conceded, with only one clean sheet in that spell. Le Havre are more controlled but less dangerous. That mix – Nice’s porous back line and slightly higher attacking output – is a key reason why the prediction edges towards a home win.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction, with a 54.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Nice’s last three matches cleared the 2.5 line (1-3 at Strasbourg, 0-4 vs Paris SG), with only the 2-0 win at Angers staying under. For Le Havre, two of their last three went under 2.5 (1-1 vs Auxerre, 0-0 vs Lyon) and only the 2-3 loss at Paris FC went over, but Nice’s average of 2.6 goals conceded and Le Havre’s 1.8 conceded, combined with both teams’ xG against (2.112 and 1.91 respectively), point towards chances at both ends rather than a cagey under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately busy game, with 9.74 total corners expected. Nice’s last three have produced 10, 7 and 12 match corners, showing they’re regularly involved in games where the ball is worked into wide areas and forced behind. Le Havre’s recent totals are more modest – 10, 14 and 4 – but still average close to that predicted corners line. With both sides needing points and accustomed to fairly even contests, a match hovering around 9–10 corners fits their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.72, suggesting a reasonably open contest rather than a siege at one end. Nice’s last three have seen combined shots of 24 (at Strasbourg), 23 (vs Paris SG) and 23 (at Angers), slightly below that mark but in the same range. Le Havre’s games have been more shot-heavy – 22 vs Auxerre, 35 at Paris FC, 25 vs Lyon – which helps push the shots prediction up; aligned with their xG profiles, this points to a game where both sides create opportunities, even if finishing quality varies.

Final Prediction

Nice are favoured largely because they carry a bit more attacking threat at home and Le Havre have struggled to turn balance of play into wins. Defensive weaknesses on both sides, however, make this less of a straightforward relegation scrap and more of a game where momentum swings could decide it. The key factor to watch will be how Le Havre handle Nice’s forward forays; if the visitors can’t contain them, the home side’s slight edge in quality should tell.

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