Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Lorient Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nice

Home Team
38%
VS

Lorient

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Nice L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 5)

Lorient W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lorient

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.41
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives this match a perfectly balanced outlook: 38.0% probability for a Nice home win and 38.0% for a Lorient away win, with a 25.0% chance of a draw, but edges the predicted result slightly towards an away victory. With Lorient currently 9th on 31 points and Nice down in 14th on 23 points, the table position also leans towards the visitors. The over 2.5 prediction is “over”, with a 53.0% chance that the game produces at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Nice come into this one on a three-game winless run: a 2-0 defeat away at Lyon, followed by home draws against Monaco (0-0) and Brest (2-2). Those results underline their inconsistency and defensive fragility; they have conceded 40 league goals and sit on a -13 goal difference. Over the last five matches they have scored just 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.8, despite generating an average of 1.358 expected goals – a sign that they are not finishing the chances they do create and are leaking more at the back than they should. Lorient arrive in better shape, with two wins in their last three (2-0 vs Angers and 2-1 vs Nantes) and a single defeat away to Brest (0-2). That run has solidified their place in the top half and kept them in touch with the European-chasing pack. Interestingly, their attacking output is efficient rather than dominant: they average 1.2 goals scored in the last five games from just 0.752 expected goals per match, while conceding 0.8 from 1.414 expected goals against. That suggests a team making the most of limited chances and relying on resilient last-ditch defending or goalkeeping to keep the score down.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is over, with a 53.0% probability that this match sees at least three goals. Two of Nice’s last three league games went over 2.5 total goals (2-2 vs Brest, 2-0 vs Lyon just under), while Lorient have seen one over (2-1 vs Nantes) and two under (2-0 vs Angers, 0-2 vs Brest) in the same span. With Nice conceding 1.8 per game over the last five and Lorient scoring 1.2, and both sides’ xG profiles pointing to chances at both ends, the balance just tilts towards goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.67, suggesting a game with a fair amount of attacking territory for both sides. Nice’s last three matches have produced 13, 14 and 11 total corners respectively, showing they tend to be involved in games with plenty of deliveries into the box. Lorient’s recent outings have seen 5, 14 and 5 corners, a more variable pattern but still capable of high counts when the game opens up. Given Nice’s tendency to push at home and Lorient’s counter-attacking threat, the corners prediction of around 10 overall looks well supported.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 24.59 total attempts, which aligns closely with what both teams have produced recently. Nice’s last three games featured 19, 23 and 27 total shots, while Lorient’s had 18, 24 and 15, so a mid‑20s shots prediction is consistent with their current rhythm. With Nice generating higher attacking xG (1.358) than Lorient (0.752) but Lorient being more clinical in front of goal, we can expect a reasonable volume of efforts from both, matching the shots prediction.

Final Prediction

Lorient are given the slight edge because of their better league position, more solid recent results, and sharper finishing compared with a Nice side that is underperforming its chances and struggling defensively. The key factor to watch will be how Lorient’s efficiency in front of goal matches up against Nice’s tendency to concede, which could ultimately decide a finely balanced encounter.

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