Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Monaco Prediction - 8 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Nice
Home Team
18%
VS
Monaco
Away Team
66%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
56%
Under 2.5:
44%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 27 | 48 |
| 2 | Lens | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Marseille | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 39 |
| 4 | Lyon | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Lille | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Rennes | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 31 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Lorient | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 | Monaco | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 27 |
| 11 | Angers | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| 12 | Brest | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Nice | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 20 |
| 16 | Nantes | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
| 18 | Metz | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Nice
- Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 5)
- 4th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 2)
Monaco
- Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Nice
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.66
# Clean Sheets:
0
Monaco
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.71
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Monaco are clear favourites here, with a 66.0% chance of taking all three points away at Nice, compared to just 18.0% for the home side and 16.0% for the draw. With the model leaning towards over 2.5 goals at 56.0%, this Riviera clash is expected to be open and attacking. In the table, Monaco sit 10th on 27 points, while Nice are down in 13th with 22 points, both trying to climb away from the wrong end of mid‑table.
Match Analysis
Nice come into this having taken four points from their last three games: a 2–2 home draw with Brest, a strong 4–1 away win at Nantes, and a heavy 5–1 defeat at Toulouse. That run underlines how unpredictable they’ve been, capable of scoring but also leaking goals. Their recent numbers back this up: 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average in the last five, with xG for (1.614) and against (1.664) both relatively balanced, and no clean sheets in that stretch.
Monaco’s recent form is also mixed: a 3–1 home loss to Lorient, a 0–0 away draw at Le Havre, then an emphatic 4–0 home win over Rennes. Like Nice, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over the last five games, but their attacking potential looks slightly stronger on xG at 1.742 for, with 1.706 against. Crucially, Monaco have kept 2 clean sheets in their last five, suggesting a slightly more reliable defensive base than Nice’s.
Final Prediction
Monaco’s higher league position, superior win probability, and recent clean sheets give them a clear edge in what should be a lively match. With both teams’ xG numbers pointing to chances at both ends and over 2.5 goals favoured, the key factor to watch will be whether Monaco’s defence can stay organised against a Nice side that, while inconsistent, has shown it can suddenly explode in front of goal.
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