Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Paris SG Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nice

Home Team
18%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
64%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Nice W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)

Paris SG L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 5 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are clear favourites here, with a 64.0% probability of an away win, against just 18.0% for Nice and 18.0% for the draw. The over 2.5 prediction is also strong, with a 60.0% chance of at least three goals. League position underlines the gap: PSG sit top of Ligue 1 with 57 points from 25 games, while Nice are down in 15th on 27 points from 26 matches and still glancing nervously towards the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Nice come into this on the back of a much-needed 2-0 away win at Angers, but that result sits between two worrying defeats: 0-4 at home to Rennes and 0-1 at Paris FC. The pattern is clear – when they are opened up, they concede heavily, as shown by 48 goals against this season and an average of 2.0 goals conceded in their last five matches. Interestingly, their underlying numbers are slightly kinder: 1.896 expected goals (xG) for and 1.582 xG against over the last five suggests they are creating more than their raw goal tally of 1.2 per game, but also that defensive lapses are being punished. PSG, meanwhile, have responded well to setbacks. A 1-3 home defeat to Monaco was a jolt, but they followed it with a controlled 1-0 win away at Le Havre and a comfortable 3-0 home victory against bottom-side Metz. Over their last five games they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but the xG figures tell the full story: 2.706 xG for and only 1.032 xG against per match. That points to sustained attacking pressure and relatively solid defending, underlined by three clean sheets in those five outings, which is ominous for a Nice side that can struggle to keep teams at bay.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Nice’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (2-0 vs Angers, 0-1 vs Paris FC), but the 0-4 home loss to Rennes shows how quickly their games can explode. For PSG, two of their last three have gone over 2.5 (1-3 vs Monaco, 3-0 vs Metz), with only the 1-0 at Le Havre staying under. With PSG averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.706 xG going forward, and Nice conceding 2.0 goals on average, there is a strong foundation for over 2.5 rather than under 2.5 in this one.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.76, suggesting a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Recent numbers support that corners prediction: Nice’s last three games have produced 13, 8 and 14 corners respectively, as they tend to concede territory and defend deep, inviting deliveries into the box. PSG’s last three have seen 10, 6 and 5 corners, with the league leaders usually on the front foot and regularly forcing blocks and clearances from wide areas, which should again nudge the total towards that 9–10 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stands at 25.78, pointing to a relatively open contest in terms of attempts. Nice have allowed double-digit shots in all of their last three matches (11, 12 and 16 faced) while taking 12, 14 and 11 themselves, which fits a game-state where both sides create. PSG have been even more active: 20, 22 and 17 shots taken in their last three, while restricting opponents to 11, 10 and just 3. That blend of high PSG volume, solid xG of 2.706 and Nice’s tendency to concede chances makes a 25+ shots prediction look realistic.

Final Prediction

PSG’s edge lies in their superior attacking production and defensive stability, backed up by both results and the underlying metrics. Nice can create, but their habit of conceding clear chances against top sides makes them vulnerable. The key factor to watch will be how long Nice can resist PSG’s pressure; if the visitors find rhythm early, the league leaders should justify their status as strong favourites.

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