Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Rennes Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nice

Home Team
56%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Nice L D L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)

Rennes W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 1

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Nice are marginally favoured at home, with a 56.0% chance of victory against a Rennes side given a 22.0% shot, the same probability as a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (57.0% probability), suggesting a more open contest than the table might imply. Rennes come into this from 6th place on 40 points, while Nice are under pressure down in 15th on 24 points, uncomfortably close to the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

Nice’s recent form is fragile: just one point from their last three matches, with defeats away to Paris FC (0-1) and Lyon (0-2) sandwiching a chaotic 3-3 draw at home to Lorient. Those results underline a side that can score in bursts but leaks too many goals, as reflected by 30 scored and 44 conceded over the season. Interestingly, their last five games suggest they are creating more than they finish, with 1.636 expected goals per match yet only 1.2 actually scored, and just one clean sheet in that run. Rennes, by contrast, arrive on a surge: three wins on the spin against Toulouse (1-0), Auxerre (3-0) and a statement 3-1 victory over Paris SG. That nine-point burst has solidified their top‑six position and kept them firmly in the European hunt. The advanced metrics, however, are a touch more cautious about Rennes’ level: 1.2 goals scored on average in the last five, but only 0.906 expected goals, and 2.4 conceded from 1.478 xG against, suggesting both ends of the pitch have been running a little hot. This clash therefore pits Nice’s underperforming attack against a Rennes team whose recent scorelines might flatter them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs over 2.5 with a 57.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support that over 2.5 prediction. Two of Nice’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Lorient, 0-2 vs Lyon, 0-1 vs Paris FC), while two of Rennes’ last three also cleared the mark (3-0 at Auxerre, 3-1 vs Paris SG, 1-0 vs Toulouse). With Nice averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded from 1.636 xG for and 1.476 xG against, and Rennes combining 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded recently, the numbers point towards another open, chance‑filled evening rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 10.21, which fits with both teams’ recent patterns. Nice’s last three outings featured 14, 10 and 13 corners respectively, while Rennes’ games produced 7, 9 and 13, indicating matches that regularly hit or exceed double digits. Given both sides’ tendency to allow shots and crosses, this corners prediction aligns with two attacking teams that are prepared to get the ball into wide areas and force set‑pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.94, pointing to a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. Nice’s last three matches have seen combined shot counts of 27 (vs Paris FC), 25 (vs Lorient) and 19 (vs Lyon), while Rennes’ have delivered 19 (vs Toulouse), 23 (vs Auxerre) and a high‑tempo 35 (vs Paris SG). Those volumes marry well with their recent xG profiles, making this shots prediction consistent with a match where both teams are prepared to pull the trigger frequently.

Final Prediction

Nice are backed to edge this mainly because of home advantage and underlying numbers that suggest their attack should start converting more consistently. Rennes’ recent winning streak and higher league position keep them dangerous, but their metrics hint at possible regression. The key factor to watch will be which side controls territory and shot quality; if Nice can turn their xG edge into real goals, their survival push gets a vital boost.

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