Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Brest Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Paris SG

Home Team
88%
VS

Brest

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.0
Expected Spread: +2.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Paris SG D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 1)

Brest L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

xG (avg) 2.28
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Brest

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 2.06
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are overwhelming favourites here, with an 88.0% chance of victory against a Brest side given just a 5.0% shot, and a 7.0% probability of a draw. The league leaders (1st, 70 points) face a Brest team sitting 12th on 38 points, and the model points to a home win combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction. Despite PSG’s attacking power, the data leans towards a controlled, rather than explosive, scoreline.

Match Analysis

PSG arrive in solid form: a 2-2 draw with Lorient at home followed by back‑to‑back 3-0 wins against Angers (away) and Nantes (home). Across those three matches they’ve scored eight and conceded just two, with two clean sheets. Their recent averages back this up: 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in the last five, underpinned by 2.278 expected goals (xG) created and only 1.0 xG allowed. Even when they don’t dominate the scoreline, they are consistently generating the better chances. Brest come into this with confidence dented. A heavy 0-4 defeat away to Paris FC was followed by a chaotic 3-3 home draw with Lens and a 1-1 trip to Nantes. That’s just four goals scored and eight conceded in their last three, and the broader five‑game numbers are worrying: only 0.4 goals scored per game, 2.0 conceded, plus 0.952 xG for and 2.056 xG against on average. They’re being pushed back territorially, facing a lot of shots and corners, and struggling to keep opponents at bay over 90 minutes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 with a 46.0% probability for over, so the under 2.5 call is marginal but favoured. Two of PSG’s last three matches (both 3-0 wins) actually went over 2.5 goals, while Brest had two over 2.5 games (0-4, 3-3) and one under (1-1). However, Brest’s recent average of just 0.4 goals scored and PSG’s solid 1.0 xG conceded per match suggest the visitors may struggle to contribute much to the total, supporting the under 2.5 prediction despite PSG’s attacking numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total predicted corners for this match is 9.76, pointing to a game with a healthy but not extreme number of set‑piece situations. PSG’s last three have produced corner counts of 12-2, 4-5 and 7-6, showing they generally dominate but still allow some opportunities. Brest, meanwhile, have been penned back: 3-7, 0-6 and 0-11 on corners. That pattern fits a corners prediction where PSG’s front-foot, possession-heavy style creates most of the predicted corners, with Brest largely forced to defend deep.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash is 26.99, consistent with a match where PSG do most of the attacking. Recently, PSG have posted 24, 17 and 14 shots in their last three, while allowing 5, 6 and 11. Brest have managed just 10, 6 and 4 attempts, while facing 17, 25 and 17. Those figures, combined with PSG’s 2.278 xG and Brest’s 2.056 xG conceded per game, support a shots prediction in which the champions rack up the bulk of the expected shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Paris SG wins by X goals. Negative = Brest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Paris SG vs Brest with expected spread of +2.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Paris SG vs Brest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is strongly in PSG’s favour at +2.48, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly two to three goals. Over their last three, PSG’s individual results (+0, +3, +3) show a trend of comfortable victories, while Brest’s (-4, 0, 0) underlines their fragility against stronger sides. This expected spread aligns with the 88.0% home-win probability and the contrast between PSG’s 70 goals scored and Brest’s -10 goal difference over the season.

Final Prediction

PSG’s superior firepower, defensive control and xG profile give them a clear edge against a Brest team conceding too many chances and struggling to score regularly. The key factor to watch will be how long Brest can resist PSG’s pressure; if the early waves bring a goal, the scoreline could quickly match that projected two-to-three‑goal margin.

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