Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Lyon Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Paris SG

Home Team
77%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Paris SG W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)

Lyon W D L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

xG (avg) 2.26
xGA (avg) 0.70
Clean Sheets 3

Lyon

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are clear favourites here, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points against Lyon, while the draw (12.0%) and away win (10.0%) are given far less chance. The model points toward a home victory combined with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 63.0% likelihood, suggesting an open contest. Lyon arrive as a solid top‑five side in Ligue 1 (5th with 51 points), but they are up against the league leaders Paris SG, who are setting the pace at the top.

Match Analysis

Paris SG come into this one in strong form despite a recent setback. They have won two of their last three league matches – 3-1 at home to Toulouse and 4-0 away at Nice – before a 1-3 home loss to Monaco. Those games show a side that consistently creates chances and scores goals, with at least three goals in total in all three fixtures and dominant shot numbers (17, 17 and 20 attempts). Lyon’s recent run is more mixed. They beat Lorient 2-0 at home, drew 0-0 away at Angers, and narrowly lost 1-2 to Monaco in a game where they were outshot 21-15. The pattern is of a team that can keep things tight – two clean sheets in the last three – but struggles to impose itself consistently in attack. The advanced metrics underline Paris SG’s edge. Over their last five games they average 3.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong expected goals numbers: 2.256 xG for and just 0.7 xG against per match, plus three clean sheets. Lyon, by contrast, average only 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the same span, with 0.974 xG for and 1.162 xG against. Lyon’s defensive record has been decent in patches, but their attacking output lags well behind Paris SG’s relentless production.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans toward an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0%, and recent scorelines support that view. All three of Paris SG’s latest matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1, 4-0, 1-3), reflecting their 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average, plus strong xG numbers in attack and defence. Lyon have been tighter – only one of their last three games went over 2.5 (2-0, 0-0, 1-2) – but their 1.2 goals conceded per match and higher xG against suggest they can be opened up by a top attack like Paris SG’s. Taken together, the balance of evidence backs goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.25 total corners, which fits the recent patterns of both teams. Paris SG’s last three matches produced 7-3, 5-2 and 7-3 in corners, showing a side that spends a lot of time in the opposition half and regularly forces set‑piece situations. Lyon’s games have seen 4-6, 7-3 and 2-6, with fluctuations depending on whether they are on the front foot or pinned back. Given Paris SG’s attacking intent and high shot volume, the predicted corners figure around nine looks reasonable for this matchup.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 25.71 also tallies with recent performances. Paris SG have fired off 17, 17 and 20 shots in their last three games, regularly overwhelming their opponents in this department. Lyon, meanwhile, have taken 11, 11 and 15 shots, but have also allowed 12, 7 and 21, suggesting they may have to absorb plenty of pressure here. With Paris SG’s xG of 2.256 per match built on high-volume shooting, the shots prediction of roughly 26 attempts overall feels aligned with how these two sides are currently playing.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s combination of clinical finishing, sustained pressure and superior underlying numbers explains why they are so heavily favoured. Lyon’s defensive resilience gives them a puncher’s chance, but their limited attacking production makes an upset unlikely over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be how long Lyon can resist Paris SG’s wave of chances; if the hosts score early, this could quickly become a game played entirely on Paris SG’s terms.

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