Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Metz Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Paris SG

Home Team
99%
VS

Metz

Away Team
0%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 27.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Paris SG L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 0)

Metz L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.79
# Clean Sheets: 3

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.90
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are overwhelming favourites here, with a 99.0% probability of a home win against relegation‑threatened Metz, who sit 18th and bottom of Ligue 1. The model also leans towards an over 2.5 goals prediction at 66.0%, suggesting a comfortable victory for a Paris side pushing at the top end of the table, while Metz fight to avoid the drop in a league where the bottom two go down.

Match Analysis

Paris SG come into this match with strong recent form despite a slip at Rennes (1-3 away). That defeat was preceded by a devastating 5-0 home win over Marseille and a solid 2-1 away success at Strasbourg, underlining both their attacking firepower and their ability to control games. Across their last five matches they are averaging 3.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded, with 2.792 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.794 xG allowed per game, plus three clean sheets – elite numbers at both ends of the pitch. Metz, by contrast, are stuck in a relegation battle and their recent run underlines why. They lost 1-3 at home to fellow struggler Auxerre, drew 0-0 at home to Lille, and were beaten 0-1 away at Angers. That’s just one point from three games, with only one goal scored. Over their last five, Metz average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, with a low 0.624 xG created and a high 1.902 xG conceded per match, showing a side that struggles to fashion clear chances while giving up plenty at the other end.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 66.0% is backed up by how these sides have been trending. Two of Paris SG’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (4 and 5 total goals), with only the 2-1 win at Strasbourg just edging over but still confirming their attacking consistency. For Metz, two of their last three matches were under 2.5 (0-0 vs Lille and 0-1 vs Angers), but their leaky defence, averaging 2.0 conceded with 1.902 xG against, is a concern against a Paris attack scoring 3.6 per game and generating 2.792 xG. Those averages point more towards a high‑scoring home win than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.69, suggesting a game with a fair amount of attacking territory, especially for the hosts. Paris SG’s last three matches produced corner counts of 8-5, 5-2 and 6-5, confirming their habit of pinning teams back and accumulating corners through sustained pressure. Metz, meanwhile, have seen lower numbers (4-3, 1-6, 3-4), reflecting a more reactive and defensive style. This corners prediction fits a pattern where Paris dominate the ball and wide areas, with Metz mainly defending their box and conceding a share of the predicted corners total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction calls for 27.43 expected shots in the match, which aligns with the profiles of the two teams. Paris SG have taken 22, 22 and 13 shots in their last three games, consistently creating volume in attack, while limiting opponents to 13, 9 and 9 attempts. Metz, on the other hand, have produced 13, 6 and 5 shots while facing 14, 16 and 17, indicating they are often under pressure. Combined with Paris’s strong xG numbers and Metz’s high xG against, the expected shots figure points to a one‑sided shot count dominated by the home side.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s edge is clear: a prolific attack, tight defence, and superior underlying numbers against a Metz team conceding heavily and creating little. With a 99.0% probability of a home win and strong support for over 2.5 goals, all signs point to a dominant Paris performance. A key factor to watch will be how early Paris SG can turn their expected control of shots and territory into goals, which could determine just how emphatic the scoreline becomes.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel