Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Monaco Prediction - 6 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Paris SG

Home Team
90%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 67%
Under 2.5: 33%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Paris SG W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)

Monaco W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.55
# Clean Sheets: 3

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are strong favourites at home, with a 90.0% probability of taking all three points against Monaco, who are sitting 7th in Ligue 1 and chasing the European spots. The model also leans firmly towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 67.0% probability, suggesting an open contest rather than a cagey one. Paris SG’s position among the league’s elite and Monaco’s status as a top-half but inconsistent side frame this as a clash of different tiers.

Match Analysis

Paris SG come into this game with two convincing wins and one setback in their last three outings: 1-0 at Le Havre, 3-0 at home to Metz, and a 1-3 loss away to Rennes. In all three matches they dominated the shot count (22-10, 17-3, 22-13), underlining a side that regularly pins opponents back. Their recent form is backed up by impressive underlying numbers: an average of 3.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded over the last five games, with 2.45 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.548 xG allowed per match, plus three clean sheets in that period. That combination of firepower and defensive control explains why they are such heavy favourites. Monaco arrive in Paris on a three-game winning streak, beating Angers 2-0, Lens 3-2 and Nantes 3-1. The scorelines say “free-scoring”, but the shot counts (10-6, 10-18, 12-13) suggest a team that can be out-shot yet still find a way to win. Over the last five games they have averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, numbers that are notably more modest than their last three results. Their xG profile – 1.234 created and 1.124 conceded on average – points to fairly balanced, tight games, but three clean sheets in that stretch show they are capable of defensive solidity when required.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 67.0% feels justified. Two of Paris SG’s last three matches finished with three or more goals (3-0 vs Metz and 1-3 vs Rennes), with only the 1-0 at Le Havre going under 2.5. For Monaco, all three of their recent fixtures went over 2.5 (2-0, 3-2, 3-1), indicating a tilt towards more open games. Paris SG’s averages of 3.6 scored and 0.2 conceded, paired with 2.45 xG for, suggest they can push this past the under 2.5 threshold almost on their own, while Monaco’s 1.234 xG for implies they can contribute on the scoreboard.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.45, hinting at a match with a decent but not extreme number of set-piece opportunities. Paris SG’s last three outings saw corner totals of 6, 5 and 13 (team splits 3-3, 4-1, 8-5), reflecting a side that attacks in waves and forces teams deep. Monaco’s corner numbers (5-2, 2-7, 9-3) similarly produce relatively high combined figures. That supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 mark, with both teams’ attacking styles and regular crossing likely to keep the flag-bearers busy.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.37 points to a game where both goalkeepers should be worked, but without turning into a shooting gallery. Paris SG’s last three games produced 22, 17 and 22 attempts of their own, while conceding 10, 3 and 13 – consistently high output in the final third. Monaco’s recent shot totals (10, 10, 12 taken; 6, 18, 13 faced) confirm they allow plenty of efforts against stronger opposition. Taken together with Paris SG’s 2.45 xG and Monaco’s 1.234 xG, the shots prediction around the mid‑20s aligns with an attacking match where the home side sets the tempo.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s edge comes from their blend of prolific scoring, miserly defending and sustained territorial dominance, all reflected in both results and advanced metrics. Monaco’s recent winning run and three clean sheets show they are not to be taken lightly, but their overall averages suggest they may struggle to match the home side’s intensity over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Monaco can withstand Paris SG’s shot volume and xG pressure long enough to stay in the contest.

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