Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Toulouse Prediction - 3 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Paris SG

Home Team
81%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
8%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Paris SG W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)

Toulouse W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

xG (avg) 2.23
xGA (avg) 0.87
Clean Sheets 3

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are strong favourites here, with an 81.0% probability of a home win against mid‑table Toulouse, who sit 9th on 37 points. The model also leans towards a high‑scoring encounter, with a 64.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. With Paris pushing at the top end of the league and Toulouse safely in mid-table, all signs point to a home victory with attacking football on show.

Match Analysis

Paris SG arrive in excellent domestic form despite that slip against Monaco. In their last three league games they have beaten Nice 4-0 away, lost 1-3 at home to Monaco, and edged Le Havre 1-0 away. Those results show both their firepower and their ability to manage tighter contests. Across the last five matches, they are averaging 2.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, underpinned by strong underlying numbers: 2.228 expected goals created and just 0.868 xG allowed per game, plus three clean sheets in that stretch. Toulouse, 9th and competitive, come into this with two wins from their last three: a 1-0 home victory over Lorient and a chaotic 4-3 away win at Metz, bookended by a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Marseille. They are reasonably balanced statistically over their last five games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG figures of 1.38 for and 1.096 against. That suggests they can pose a threat, but they are stepping up several levels in terms of opposition quality at the Parc des Princes, where Paris SG’s attacking and defensive metrics look superior in almost every area.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured, with a 64.0% probability of at least three goals in the match. Two of Paris SG’s last three league games have hit at least three goals (4-0 vs Nice, 1-3 vs Monaco), with only the 1-0 at Le Havre going under 2.5. Toulouse have had one out-and-out goalfest—the 4-3 at Metz—alongside two games that finished under 2.5 (1-0 vs Lorient, 0-1 vs Marseille). Given Paris SG’s averages of 2.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, supported by 2.228 xG for and 0.868 xG against, the attacking volume and efficiency are there for this to go over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.25 total corners, suggesting a steady but not extreme flow of attacking situations. Paris SG’s last three matches have produced 7, 10 and 6 total corners respectively (5-2 at Nice, 7-3 vs Monaco, 3-3 at Le Havre), while Toulouse’s games have seen 5, 8 and 6 corners (1-4 vs Lorient, 4-4 at Metz, 4-2 vs Marseille). Paris’ territorial dominance and Toulouse’s willingness to counter should naturally generate a solid number of predicted corners, close to that 9.25 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.51 expected shots in total, reflecting an open contest tilted in favour of the hosts. Paris SG’s shot counts in their last three outings have been high: 17 at Nice, 20 against Monaco and 22 at Le Havre, consistently outshooting every opponent. Toulouse, meanwhile, posted 12 shots vs Lorient, 19 at Metz and 12 against Marseille, also allowing a fair number in return. When you combine these shot volumes with Paris SG’s strong xG figures and Toulouse’s 1.38 xG for and 1.096 against, a match around that 25-shot mark looks realistic.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s superior recent form, their higher scoring rate, and much stronger xG profile give them a clear edge at home, justifying the 81.0% win probability. Toulouse have shown they can be dangerous, particularly in open games, but sustaining that level away to this Paris side is a different task. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Paris SG impose their attacking rhythm; if they get on top early, the scoreline and shot count could swell quickly.

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