Ligue 1 2025-2026: Rennes vs Angers Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Rennes

Home Team
78%
VS

Angers

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 28 15 5 8 45 34 11 50
4 Marseille 28 15 4 9 55 37 18 49
5 Monaco 28 15 4 9 49 39 10 49
6 Lyon 28 14 6 8 41 29 12 48
7 Rennes 28 13 8 7 47 40 7 47
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 28 9 11 8 38 42 -4 38
10 Toulouse 28 10 7 11 39 35 4 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Angers 28 9 6 13 24 37 -13 33
13 Paris FC 28 7 11 10 33 44 -11 32
14 Le Havre 28 6 10 12 23 36 -13 28
15 Nice 28 7 6 15 33 55 -22 27
16 Auxerre 28 5 8 15 23 37 -14 23
17 Nantes 27 4 6 17 24 45 -21 18
18 Metz 28 3 6 19 25 60 -35 15

Recent Trends

Rennes W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)

Angers D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rennes

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 3

Angers

xG (avg) 0.67
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Rennes are strong favourites at Roazhon Park, with a 78.0% probability of taking all three points against an Angers side given just a 10.0% chance, and the draw at 12.0%. The hosts sit 7th on 47 points and are still hovering around the European places, while Angers are 12th on 33 points and looking more over their shoulders than upwards. The model leans towards a home win combined with an over 2.5 goals prediction, backed by a 54.0% chance of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Rennes come in with a mixed but competitive run: a chaotic 4-3 away win at Brest, a dominant yet frustrating 0-0 at home to Metz, and a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Lille. They’ve created plenty – 15, 25 and 12 shots in those games – and their last five matches show they’re averaging 1.53 expected goals for and 1.52 against. The three clean sheets in that span underline a side that, while not airtight, can control games when they get their structure right. Angers, 12th and drifting in mid-table, have hit a rough patch. A 0-0 home draw with Lyon was followed by a heavy 5-1 loss away to Lens and a 2-0 home defeat to Nice. Across those three outings they’ve rarely imposed themselves, with just 7, 16 and 11 shots respectively and only one goal scored. Their last five games back this up: 0.4 goals scored on average, 1.8 conceded, and an xG of just 0.67 for versus 1.76 against, pointing to a team struggling both to create chances and to keep the back door shut. Those advanced numbers explain the one-sided prediction. Rennes look more balanced, with their xG for and against almost level and the ability to raise their attacking tempo. Angers, by contrast, are relying on defensive resilience – two clean sheets in five – but when that fails, as at Lens, they can quickly be overwhelmed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to over 2.5 with a 54.0% probability. Two of Rennes’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-3 vs Brest, 1-2 vs Lille), with only the 0-0 against Metz landing under 2.5. For Angers, two of their last three stayed under (0-0 Lyon, 0-2 Nice) and only the 5-1 defeat at Lens went clearly over. Rennes average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, but the underlying 1.53 xG for suggests they’re capable of more than they’ve converted recently. Angers’ 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, combined with their much poorer defensive xG, support the idea that if Rennes break through early, the over 2.5 prediction has every chance of landing despite the visitors’ recent low-scoring games.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match sits at 9.51, which fits the recent patterns. Rennes’ last three outings produced 10, 10 and 7 corners (they earned 7, 8 and 5 themselves), showing a side that pushes high and forces plenty of set-piece situations. Angers’ last three saw 10, 10 and 13 corners, with them both conceding and winning a fair number. This makes a corners prediction in the 9–11 range reasonable, especially with Rennes’ front-foot approach at home. Their willingness to shoot and attack wide areas should keep Angers pinned back for long spells, generating a steady flow of predicted corners for the home side.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 25.78, which is consistent with what both teams have produced lately. Rennes have attempted 15, 25 and 12 shots in their last three, while limiting opponents to 10, 7 and 8 – figures that show control and volume in advanced areas. Angers, meanwhile, have managed 7, 16 and 11 attempts, conceding 11, 26 and 12. Given those trends and Rennes’ stronger xG profile, a shots prediction around 26 total attempts makes sense, with the bulk likely coming from the hosts. Their ability to translate possession and territory into efforts on goal aligns neatly with the expected shots figure.

Final Prediction

Rennes’ edge comes from a more consistent attack, superior xG numbers, and far greater shot and corner output, all of which back up the 78.0% win probability. Angers’ blunt attack and leaky defence, especially away from home, leave them vulnerable if they fall behind early. The key factor to watch will be Rennes’ efficiency in front of goal: if they convert the chances their play usually generates, this should be a straightforward home win.

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