Ligue 1 2025-2026: Rennes vs Metz Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Rennes

Home Team
75%
VS

Metz

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Rennes L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)

Metz L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.57
# Clean Sheets: 3

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rennes are strong favourites at Roazhon Park, with a 75.0% probability of taking all three points against bottom‑of‑the‑table Metz, who have only a 12.0% chance of an upset. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (58.0% probability), suggesting an open contest rather than a cagey survival scrap. Rennes come into this from 7th place with 43 points, while Metz are 18th with just 13 points and staring straight at relegation.

Match Analysis

Rennes’ recent form has been solid if not spectacular: two wins and one defeat from their last three league matches. They have beaten Nice 4-0 away and edged Toulouse 1-0 at home, either side of a tight 2-1 home loss to Lille. That pattern fits their recent numbers: over the last five games they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, backed by 1.70 expected goals (xG) for and 1.57 xG against. Importantly, they’ve kept three clean sheets in that spell, suggesting a defence that, while not watertight, has spells of real control. Metz, by contrast, arrive in Rennes on a desperate run: three straight defeats, conceding eight and scoring just three. The 3-4 home loss to Toulouse showed they can create (17 shots) but also how open they can be at the back; that was followed by a 3-0 hammering away at Lens and a damaging 1-0 home defeat to Brest despite racking up 24 shots and 12 corners. Over their last five games they’re averaging only 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with an xG for of just 0.41 and xG against of 1.71, and no clean sheets. On current trends, they struggle badly in both boxes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs over 2.5 with a 58.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support that over 2.5 prediction. For Rennes, two of their last three matches have featured at least three goals (1-2 vs Lille, 4-0 vs Nice), with only the 1-0 win over Toulouse staying under 2.5. For Metz, it’s similar volatility: their 3-4 defeat to Toulouse and 0-3 loss at Lens went over 2.5, with only the 0-1 against Brest going under 2.5. Combined with Rennes’ averages of 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded and Metz conceding 2.0 per game on recent form – and both sides’ xG pointing to Rennes consistently creating more than they score – a goal-filled game is more likely than an under 2.5 stalemate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.57, which sits neatly between the high and low extremes both sides have shown recently. Rennes have seen corner counts of 7 (5-2 vs Lille), 8 (1-7 at Nice) and 7 (6-1 vs Toulouse) – they don’t always rack up huge numbers themselves, but their games rarely stay quiet on that front. Metz’s last three tell a different story: 8 corners vs Toulouse (4-4), then only 10 vs Lens (4-6) but an enormous 16 in the Brest defeat (12-4), showing how their reactive, chasing-the-game style can generate set-piece volume. That all fits a corners prediction just under double figures, with Rennes likely to dominate territory and Metz forced to defend deep and counter.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected total of 25.25 shots, the shots prediction suggests a match where Rennes spend long spells in Metz’s half. Rennes’ last three show them as consistent but not shot-happy: 12 attempts vs Lille, 12 at Nice, 10 against Toulouse. Metz are far more erratic: 17 shots vs Toulouse, just 5 away to Lens under heavy pressure, then 24 in vain against Brest. Marrying that with the xG numbers – Rennes averaging 1.70 xG and Metz only 0.41 – points towards Rennes generating the clearer chances, with Metz relying on volume rather than quality when they do threaten.

Final Prediction

Rennes hold all the cards: higher league position, better recent form, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage, which justifies the 75.0% win probability. Metz’s lack of clean sheets and their meagre attacking output make this a daunting trip. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Rennes can turn territorial dominance into goals; if they score early, Metz’s fragile defence could be exposed and the game might open up exactly as the predictions suggest.

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