Ligue 1 2025-2026: Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Rennes

Home Team
30%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
46%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Rennes W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)

Toulouse D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 1

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are narrowly favoured to take all three points, with a 46.0% chance of an away win compared to just 30.0% for Rennes and 23.0% for the draw, despite Rennes sitting slightly higher in the table (6th on 37 points) than Toulouse (10th on 31 points). The model leans towards a lively contest in Brittany, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% and both teams expected to find the net.

Match Analysis

Rennes come into this one from a demanding run of fixtures but with signs of renewed momentum. They have beaten Auxerre 3-0 away and Paris SG 3-1 at home, either side of a 3-1 defeat at Lens – that’s two wins from three, with eight goals scored and four conceded. They’re creating plenty: over the last five matches they average 2.2 goals scored, backed up by 2.178 expected goals, but the 1.2 goals and 1.66 xG conceded per game underline that they remain open at the back. Toulouse’s recent form tells a different story: performances have often been better than results. They have taken just one point from their last three – a 1-1 draw at home to Paris FC, followed by 2-1 and 1-0 defeats away at Le Havre and Angers – yet they have not been outplayed in terms of chances. Over their last five matches they average 1.6 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, with underlying numbers of 1.524 xG for and just 1.028 xG against. That suggests a fairly balanced side that tends to keep games under control, even when the scoreline goes against them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% is driven above all by Rennes’ game profile. Two of their last three league matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Auxerre, 3-1 vs Paris SG, 1-3 at Lens), and they average 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per outing in their last five, supported by healthy xG numbers at both ends. Toulouse are at the lower-scoring end of the spectrum recently – just one of their last three has gone over 2.5, with totals of 2, 3 and 1 goals – but their steady 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per game suggest they can contribute enough for this to tilt over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a busy afternoon out wide, with an expected total of 9.76 corners. Rennes’ last three have produced 9, 13 and 8 corners, while Toulouse’s have been even more corner-heavy with tallies of 15, 11 and 8. Both teams have recently racked up double figures on their own in single matches (Toulouse hit 12 and 10 in two games, Rennes twice recorded 5), reflecting sides that attack the flanks and cross often, which supports a predicted corners figure close to double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total for this game is 25.34, which fits neatly with how both teams have been playing. Rennes’ most recent matches saw shot totals of 23, 35 and 24, while Toulouse’s games featured 28, 30 and 24 attempts, showing that neither side shies away from pulling the trigger. Those volumes marry well with their xG profiles: Rennes’ 2.178 xG for and Toulouse’s 1.524 xG for over the past five outings point to a match where the shots prediction of around 25 efforts is realistic.

Final Prediction

Toulouse get the edge in the win probabilities thanks to their more solid defensive numbers and consistent xG balance, even if the table still favours Rennes. The key factor to watch will be how Rennes’ expansive attacking approach fares against Toulouse’s more controlled, efficient style – whichever side imposes its rhythm is likely to dictate both the result and how wild the scoreline becomes.

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