Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Lens Prediction - 27 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Strasbourg

Home Team
29%
VS

Lens

Away Team
48%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 23.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Strasbourg W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 4 - 1)

Lens L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.80
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.85
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are favoured to take all three points in Strasbourg, with a 48.0% chance of an away win against just 29.0% for the hosts and 23.0% for the draw. Second in Ligue 1 with 52 points, Lens are firmly in the Champions League race, while seventh-placed Strasbourg (34 points) are pushing for Europe but still some way off the top three. The match leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0% and a 56.0% chance that both sides get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Strasbourg come into this one off a mixed trio of results that underline their volatility. A confident 3-1 home win over Lyon showed their attacking threat at La Meinau, followed by an impressive 2-2 draw away at Marseille, before a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Le Havre. Across those three games they’ve scored six and conceded five, suggesting they can trouble strong opposition but struggle to keep things tight, particularly away from home. Lens, meanwhile, have been playing with the swagger of a top-two side. They swept Paris FC aside 5-0 away, then beat Rennes 3-1 at home, only to be edged 3-2 by Monaco in a high-tempo contest. That’s 10 goals scored and 4 conceded across their last three, and even in defeat to Monaco they produced 18 shots to 10, underlining their attacking dominance. The advanced metrics back this up: Lens average 2.6 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded over their last five, with a very strong 2.48 xG per game and 0.85 xG against, plus two clean sheets in that spell. Strasbourg’s numbers are more modest but still positive going forward: 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, and 1.46 xG created per game, with just 0.8 xG allowed yet no clean sheets, hinting at lapses rather than sustained defensive weakness.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, and the recent scorelines support a goal-filled encounter. All three of Strasbourg’s last matches went over 2.5 goals (4, 4 and 3 total), and the same is true for Lens (5, 5 and 4 total). With Strasbourg averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Lens up at 2.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, both backed by healthy xG figures, the balance of evidence tilts towards another game pushing past the 2.5-goal line rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Lens
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 8.93 predicted corners, suggesting a moderately open game but not a constant barrage of set-pieces. Strasbourg’s recent corner counts (4-2 vs Lyon, 5-5 at Marseille, 3-9 at Le Havre) show they can be pushed back and concede plenty when under pressure. Lens have been more consistently on the front foot, with 7-2 vs Monaco, 5-3 at Paris FC and 4-4 against Rennes, reflecting their aggressive, high-tempo style. That pattern justifies a corners prediction close to nine in total, with Lens likely to edge the numbers.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Lens
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at an expected 23.68 total efforts, in line with how both teams have been playing. Strasbourg’s last three outings saw them take 13, 12 and 10 shots, while allowing 4, 10 and 15 – numbers of a side willing to trade chances. Lens have generated 18, 17 and 10 shots in their last three and consistently outshoot opponents, matching their strong xG return of 2.48 per game. Put together, these figures back an open contest with around the mid‑20s in expected shots, and Lens likely racking up the higher tally.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge thanks to their superior league position, more consistent form and stronger attacking metrics, all of which point to an away win in Strasbourg. The key factor to watch will be Lens’s ability to sustain pressure in the final third; if they impose their usual shot volume and corner dominance, Strasbourg’s fragile record of no recent clean sheets could again be exposed.

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