Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Lyon Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Strasbourg

Home Team
26%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
53%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 22.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Strasbourg D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lyon W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.36
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are favoured to take all three points, with a 53.0% probability of an away win compared to just 26.0% for Strasbourg and 21.0% for the draw. The model points to a tight Lyon victory and an under 2.5 goals prediction, with only a 47.0% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals. In the table, Lyon sit 3rd on 45 points and are pushing for the Champions League, while Strasbourg are 7th with 31 points and fighting to stay in the European conversation.

Match Analysis

Strasbourg come into this one on a three-game winless run: a 2-2 draw away at Marseille followed by 1-2 defeats against Le Havre (away) and Paris SG (home). Those matches show they can compete with strong opponents, but also that they have struggled to close games out, conceding exactly two goals in each of their last three. Their advanced numbers are more solid than the results suggest: they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded in their last five, with expected goals (xG) of 1.164 for and 0.81 against per game. The concern is the lack of clean sheets in that stretch (0 in the last five), which may again leave them vulnerable against a clinical side. Lyon, by contrast, are on a roll with three straight wins: 2-0 at home to Nice, then back-to-back 1-0 victories over Nantes (away) and Lille (home). It’s not explosive attacking football, but it’s efficient and controlled. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, and while their xG conceded is a bit higher at 1.356, they’ve still managed three clean sheets in that period. That combination of better recent form, defensive solidity, and a higher scoring average than Strasbourg explains why the away side is given the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 53.0% implied probability (since over 2.5 is only 47.0%), and the recent scorelines back up that under 2.5 prediction. Strasbourg’s last three games produced totals of 4, 3, and 3 goals, so 2 out of 3 have gone over 2.5, but their five-game averages of 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus xG of 1.164 for and 0.81 against, point more to balanced, low-margin contests. Lyon are even more clearly in “tight-game” territory: their last three have finished 2, 1, and 1 total goals, all under 2.5, and their 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per match suggest control rather than chaos.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match stand at 9.15 total, which fits a game that should be competitive but not relentlessly end-to-end. Strasbourg’s last three outings saw corner counts of 5-5 vs Marseille, 3-9 vs Le Havre, and 5-6 vs Paris SG, regularly landing around the 10-mark. Lyon’s last three produced 8-5 vs Nice, 4-5 vs Nantes, and 2-7 vs Lille, again hovering in that 9–13 range. This corners prediction reflects two sides that can build pressure in spells, especially Lyon, whose recent winning run suggests a side comfortable pushing opponents back and forcing set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 22.54 total, indicating a moderate shot volume rather than a barrage. Strasbourg’s last three games saw combined shot totals of 22 (12-10 vs Marseille), 25 (10-15 vs Le Havre), and 22 (9-13 vs Paris SG), very much in line with that shots prediction. Lyon’s recent matches produced 19 shots vs Nice (9-10), 23 vs Nantes (10-13), and 15 vs Lille (4-11), matching their xG profile of 1.61 created and 1.356 conceded: not huge numbers, but enough to generate consistent chances at both ends.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s superior league position, three-game winning streak, and better recent scoring and defensive numbers give them a clear edge over a Strasbourg side that has been competitive but leaky and winless in three. The key factor to watch will be whether Strasbourg’s attack can turn their decent xG into goals against a Lyon defence that has kept three clean sheets in its last five and is used to grinding out narrow wins.

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