Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Nice Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Strasbourg

Home Team
64%
VS

Nice

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Strasbourg W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 1)

Nice L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.05
Clean Sheets 2

Nice

xG (avg) 1.44
xGA (avg) 1.59
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg are favored to take all three points at home, with a 64.0% probability of a home win against a Nice side given just an 18.0% chance, and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for over 2.5, so only a slim edge), suggesting a tight game despite Strasbourg sitting 8th on 40 points and Nice down in 15th with 27 points.

Match Analysis

Strasbourg come into this on a solid three‑match unbeaten run: a 3-2 away win at Nantes followed by back-to-back 0-0 draws against Paris FC and Auxerre. That mix of a high‑scoring away victory and two clean sheets points to a side that can open up when needed but has recently tightened defensively. Across the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by 1.458 xG for and 1.046 xG against – numbers that underline a generally balanced, slightly positive team. Nice’s recent form is far more erratic and worrying. Heavy 0-4 home defeats to Paris SG and Rennes frame a single bright spot: a 2-0 win away at Angers. While they also average 1.4 goals scored over the last five, they are shipping 1.8 per match, with an expected 1.59 xG conceded – a clear sign of defensive fragility. Just one clean sheet in those five matches, compared to Strasbourg’s two, helps explain why the home side is strongly favored.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, despite the over 2.5 prediction probability sitting close at 49.0%, reflecting how finely balanced the goals market is. Two of Strasbourg’s last three have gone under 2.5 (both 0-0 draws), with only the 3-2 win at Nantes going over. Nice, on the other hand, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (both 0-4 defeats) and one under (2-0 at Angers). With Strasbourg’s recent averages at 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded and Nice’s xG against at 1.59, a cagey home‑controlled game that lands just under 2.5 still looks slightly more likely than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.81 total corners, roughly in line with what both teams have been producing. Strasbourg’s last three have featured 9, 16 and 9 corners respectively, showing they can rack up set‑pieces, especially at home where they had a 12-4 edge against Paris FC. Nice’s matches against Paris SG, Angers and Rennes produced 7, 13 and 8 corners, suggesting that even when they struggle, they still generate and concede a fair number. With both sides capable of sustained spells in the opposition half, predicted corners just under double figures fits their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.18, which aligns closely with what these sides have shown lately. Strasbourg’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 27 (at Nantes), 23 (vs Paris FC) and 23 (at Auxerre), while Nice’s produced 23 (vs Paris SG), 23 (at Angers) and 26 (vs Rennes). This shots prediction also matches the xG profiles: Strasbourg averaging 1.458 xG for and Nice 1.438 xG for in their last five suggests both will create enough attempts without the game becoming end‑to‑end chaos.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s edge comes from a sturdier defensive platform, better recent results, and a far stronger league position, all reinforced by more favorable underlying numbers. Nice’s vulnerability at the back, especially in heavy defeats, makes an away upset look unlikely. The key factor to watch will be whether Strasbourg can turn territorial pressure and a steady stream of shots into goals early; if they do, Nice’s shaky defence could be exposed again.

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