Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Rennes Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Strasbourg

Home Team
59%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
21%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 23.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Strasbourg W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 1)

Rennes W W D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.80
xGA (avg) 0.92
Clean Sheets 2

Rennes

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg are projected to edge this one at home, with a 59.0% probability of victory against Rennes’ 21.0%, a result that would tighten the gap between 6th and 8th in Ligue 1. With Strasbourg currently 8th on 43 points and Rennes 6th on 50, it’s a direct clash between European hopefuls. The game leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction supported by a 53.0% chance of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Strasbourg come in on a strong run: back‑to‑back wins over Nice (3-1) and Nantes (3-2) followed by a solid 0-0 draw at home to Paris FC. Seven points from nine, plus 6 goals scored in the last two victories, underline their attacking momentum at La Meinau and away. They’ve also shown control of games, racking up 12 corners to Paris FC’s 4 and outshooting Nice 16-8 at home. Rennes, though higher in the table, have been more chaotic. A 2-1 home win over Angers and a wild 4-3 success at Brest show the attacking power of a side averaging 2.4 goals scored over the last five matches, but the 0-0 against bottom side Metz despite 25 shots hints at wastefulness. Defensively they’ve been loose, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in their last five, with xG against at 1.714. Advanced numbers tilt slightly towards Strasbourg’s balance. They average 1.796 expected goals for and only 0.92 expected goals against in their last five, with two clean sheets in that spell. Rennes create slightly less on average (1.51 xG) and allow more (1.714 xG), which, combined with Strasbourg’s home strength, explains why the hosts are rated favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 53.0% probability of at least three goals. Strasbourg have seen 2 of their last 3 league games go over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Nice, 3-2 vs Nantes), with only the 0-0 against Paris FC falling under. Rennes have been similar: 2 of their last 3 also went over 2.5 (2-1 vs Angers, 4-3 vs Brest), with the 0-0 against Metz the exception. The averages back this up: Strasbourg score 1.6 and concede 1.0 per game across their last five, while Rennes score 2.4 and concede 2.0. Both sides’ xG profiles – especially Strasbourg’s 1.796 for and Rennes’ relatively high 1.714 against – support the idea that under 2.5 would go against the general pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a lively game on the flanks, with 9.46 total corners expected. Strasbourg’s last three matches produced 14, 9 and 16 total corners respectively, as they both win and concede plenty: 4-10 vs Nice, 6-3 at Nantes, 12-4 vs Paris FC. Rennes’ recent games have been similarly rich in set‑piece opportunities, with corner counts of 11-3 vs Angers, 7-3 at Brest and 8-2 vs Metz. Both teams like to push forward and fire in crosses, which naturally generates predicted corners numbers close to double digits. With neither side sitting deep by default, another high‑tempo contest should keep corner flags busy.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots are set at 23.95, which fits neatly with both teams’ recent output. Strasbourg have taken 16, 13 and 12 shots in their last three games, while allowing 8, 14 and 11. Rennes, meanwhile, have fired off 15, 15 and a massive 25 shots in their last three, while conceding 6, 10 and 7. This shots prediction also lines up with the xG data: Strasbourg’s 1.796 xG and Rennes’ 1.51 xG over their last five matches suggest both are creating regular chances. A combined tally around the mid‑20s in attempts looks realistic for two proactive attacks.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s edge comes from their recent balance: solid defensive numbers (0.92 xG against) coupled with efficient finishing at home, versus a Rennes side that scores freely but concedes just as readily. The battle between Strasbourg’s structured approach and Rennes’ expansive, risk‑heavy game should be decisive. Watch the midfield zones closely – whichever side controls transitions there is likely to dictate both the result and the rhythm of the match.

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