Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Lille Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Toulouse

Home Team
28%
VS

Lille

Away Team
49%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 28 15 5 8 45 34 11 50
4 Marseille 28 15 4 9 55 37 18 49
5 Monaco 28 15 4 9 49 39 10 49
6 Lyon 28 14 6 8 41 29 12 48
7 Rennes 28 13 8 7 47 40 7 47
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 28 9 11 8 38 42 -4 38
10 Toulouse 28 10 7 11 39 35 4 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Angers 28 9 6 13 24 37 -13 33
13 Paris FC 28 7 11 10 33 44 -11 32
14 Le Havre 28 6 10 12 23 36 -13 28
15 Nice 28 7 6 15 33 55 -22 27
16 Auxerre 28 5 8 15 23 37 -14 23
17 Nantes 27 4 6 17 24 45 -21 18
18 Metz 28 3 6 19 25 60 -35 15

Recent Trends

Toulouse L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)

Lille W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 0.96
Clean Sheets 1

Lille

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 0.80
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are slight but clear favourites here, with a 49.0% probability of an away win against Toulouse’s 28.0%, and they arrive as the current 3rd-placed side chasing the Champions League spots, while Toulouse sit 10th in Ligue 1. The model leans towards a relatively tight contest, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction at 54.0% implied (given 46.0% for over). With Lille’s strong defensive numbers and Toulouse’s recent solidity, this shapes up as a cagey but high-stakes clash.

Match Analysis

Toulouse come into this on a mixed but encouraging run: a 4-3 thriller away to Metz, a controlled 1-0 home win over Lorient, and a respectable 1-3 defeat at Paris SG. That sequence shows both sides of their game – they can get involved in wide‑open matches (seven goals at Metz) but have also shown they can lock things down at home (only one goal total against Lorient). Over the last five, they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed by 1.604 expected goals created and only 0.956 xG allowed, suggesting their upturn is supported by solid underlying play rather than pure luck. Lille’s form is even more imposing: three straight wins, including a 3-0 dismantling of Lens and back‑to‑back 2-1 away victories at Marseille and Rennes. That’s nine points from a difficult run, keeping them firmly in the top-three battle. Interestingly, they’ve only averaged 1.0 goal scored across their last five but also just 0.6 conceded, with xG figures of 1.526 for and 0.804 against indicating that they tend to create enough and limit chances at the other end. Two clean sheets in that period underline the defensive platform that has pushed them up to 50 points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to *under 2.5* as the likeliest outcome, with the over 2.5 prediction sitting at only 46.0%. Toulouse’s last three games have produced mixed signals: two matches over 2.5 goals (4-3 vs Metz, 1-3 at Paris SG) and one under (1-0 vs Lorient). Lille, by contrast, have been more consistent: all three of their recent fixtures finished with exactly three goals (3-0, 2-1, 2-1), hovering right on the line. Given Toulouse’s averages of 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded and Lille’s 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded – plus both sides’ xG figures below two per game – a tight, low‑scoring encounter slightly favours the *under 2.5* call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Lille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate number, with 9.21 expected total corners in this match. Toulouse’s last three have seen 7, 5 and 8 corners respectively, suggesting games that don’t explode in wide-open wing play but still generate a steady stream of set-piece situations. Lille’s matches have been similar, with corner counts of 6, 10 and 7, reflecting a side that can push high in big games but still controls the tempo. With neither team a relentless crossing machine, the predicted corners figure around nine fits a balanced, tactical battle.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Lille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 23.38 expected shots in total, again indicating a controlled rather than chaotic affair. Toulouse’s last three outings produced 5, 12 and 19 shots for them, while they faced 17, 7 and 17 – big swings that mirror the different game states they’ve encountered. Lille have attempted 13, 11 and 8 shots in their recent run, facing 5, 14 and 12, showing a team often comfortable without needing huge volume to generate good chances. Those patterns fit with the xG numbers for both sides: they tend to create one or two quality opportunities rather than constant shooting, which supports a mid‑20s total for expected shots.

Final Prediction

Lille’s edge comes from their more consistent defensive structure and their current position in the Champions League race, compared with a Toulouse side still looking up from mid-table. If they can impose their usual control without the ball and turn their xG advantage into clinical finishing, they should justify their 49.0% win probability. The key factor to watch will be whether Toulouse can break Lille’s compact back line early; if not, the match likely drifts in Lille’s favour in a tight, low‑scoring contest.

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