Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Toulouse

Home Team
55%
VS

Lorient

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Toulouse W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)

Lorient W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.40
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lorient

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are slight favourites at home, with a 55.0% chance of taking all three points against a Lorient side given a 23.0% chance of victory and a 22.0% chance of a draw. The model points towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction despite both teams sitting in mid‑table – Lorient 9th on 37 points and Toulouse 11th on 34 – and separated by just three points.

Match Analysis

Toulouse come into this one with mixed form: a wild 4-3 away win at bottom side Metz was surrounded by back-to-back 0-1 defeats to Marseille and Rennes. That run underlines a team that can create chances – 19 shots at Metz, 12 against Marseille, 9 at Rennes – but has struggled to turn that into consistent results, and crucially has not kept a single clean sheet in its last five games. Their recent averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, backed up by xG figures of 1.402 for and 1.396 against, paint the picture of a balanced but not dominant side. Lorient, meanwhile, are quietly resilient. They’re unbeaten in three, drawing at Lille (1-1) and at home to Auxerre (2-2) before an impressive 2-1 home win over high-flying Lens, even if they were outshot 20-6 that day. They’ve been more productive in front of goal lately, averaging 1.8 scored but also 1.4 conceded over the last five matches, and their xG profile (1.18 for, 1.768 against) suggests they’ve been a little fortunate at both ends – scoring more than expected while allowing more chances than they’d like.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied likelihood (48.0% for over), even though both teams have had some high-scoring outings. Two of Toulouse’s last three games went under 2.5 goals (0-1, 0-1) with only the 4-3 at Metz sailing over, while Lorient have seen two of their last three finish over 2.5 (2-2 vs Auxerre, 2-1 vs Lens) and one under (1-1 at Lille). With Toulouse’s goals and xG almost perfectly balanced, and Lorient’s xG suggesting they may not keep overperforming in attack, the under 2.5 and over 2.5 prediction battle tilts narrowly to a tighter game decided by small margins.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total sits at 9.61, pointing to roughly 9–10 corners overall. Toulouse’s last three have produced 8, 6 and 7 total corners, while Lorient’s have seen 11, 6 and 10, with the Bretons often conceding more corners than they win (1-10 vs Lens, 1-5 vs Lille). That pattern, combined with Toulouse’s willingness to attack at home, supports a corners prediction of a steady but not extreme tally, with the hosts likely to generate the majority of the predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.69, so we can reasonably look for something in the mid‑20s in total attempts. Toulouse’s recent games have seen 29, 22 and 19 combined shots, while Lorient’s have featured 26, 21 and 25, very much in line with that shots prediction. Given Toulouse’s xG of 1.402 and Lorient’s 1.18 per match, both sides should fashion opportunities, but without the volume or clinical edge to turn this into a shot-fest.

Final Prediction

Home advantage, slightly stronger underlying numbers, and Lorient’s habit of conceding chances give Toulouse the edge in this contest. The key factor to watch will be whether Toulouse can finally marry their steady xG output with a clean sheet, or if Lorient’s recent scoring streak can once again upset the balance.

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