Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Toulouse

Home Team
31%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
44%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 27.5
Expected Spread: -0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Toulouse L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 3)

Monaco D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 1

Monaco

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are slight favourites on the road, with a 44.0% chance of victory compared to Toulouse’s 31.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. Sitting 7th on 50 points, Monaco are chasing the European spots, while 11th‑placed Toulouse (37 points) are more comfortably mid‑table. The game leans towards goals: the model gives a 58.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams expected to find the net.

Match Analysis

Toulouse come into this with three straight defeats, but the fixtures have been brutal: Lens (2-3), Lille (0-4) and Paris SG (1-3). The scorelines suggest a side leaking goals, yet the advanced numbers tell a more nuanced story. Over the last five games they’ve conceded only 1.2 goals per match on average, from expected goals against of just 1.09, while creating a solid 1.544 xG going forward but turning that into just 0.4 actual goals per game. In short, the performances haven’t fully matched the results. Monaco’s recent run is mixed but more productive: a 2-2 home draw with Auxerre, a heavy 1-4 loss at Paris FC, and a 2-1 win over Marseille. They’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last five, underpinned by a strong 2.036 xG in attack and 1.514 xG against. That points to a side that consistently creates chances and lives with defensive risk, fitting their high‑tempo approach and explaining their 52:45 goal record this season.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 58.0%, and recent form supports it. All three of Toulouse’s latest matches went over 2.5 goals (5, 4 and 4 total goals), as did two of Monaco’s last three (4, 5 and 3). With Toulouse allowing 1.2 goals per game but generating 1.544 xG, and Monaco combining 1.8 goals scored with 2.036 xG, the balance of attacking intent and defensive vulnerability clearly leans towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.88, hinting at a fairly busy game from wide areas. Toulouse’s last three have produced 1, 4 and 2 corners for them (and 14, 2, 5 against), while Monaco’s have seen them rack up 11, 11 and 0 corners (with 3, 1, 8 conceded). This corners prediction fits two teams that allow opponents to attack – Toulouse often pinned back, Monaco pushing high and forcing set‑piece situations – making around 10 predicted corners a reasonable benchmark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 27.52 total attempts, consistent with how these sides have been playing. Toulouse faced huge shot volumes at Lens and Paris SG (41 and 17) and 15 from Lille, while scarcely shooting themselves (5, 9, 5). Monaco, by contrast, fired 15, 19 and 7 shots in their last three and regularly conceded double figures. That pattern, aligned with both sides’ xG profiles, supports a shots prediction in the high‑20s for expected shots overall, with Monaco likely to edge the tally.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Toulouse wins by X goals. Negative = Monaco wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Toulouse vs Monaco with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Toulouse vs Monaco
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.4 (home minus away), meaning Monaco are marginally favoured by just under half a goal. Toulouse’s recent goal differences of -1, -4 and -1 underline their struggles against strong opponents, while Monaco have been more competitive with a -2, -3 and +1 swing across their last three. Given Monaco’s superior scoring rate and higher attacking xG, the expected spread aligns neatly with the 44.0% away‑win probability.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s sharper attack and higher chance creation give them a slight edge, even away from home, against a Toulouse side that has performed better than results suggest but still lacks cutting edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Toulouse can finally convert their underlying xG into goals, or if Monaco’s more clinical front line makes the difference in a game that promises chances at both ends.

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