Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Arsenal

Home Team
56%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
21%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Shots: 23.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Arsenal W D D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 0)

Chelsea D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.01
# Clean Sheets: 2

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are favoured to take all three points, with a 56.0% probability of a home win against a Chelsea side given just a 21.0% chance, and a 22.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (47.0% for over 2.5, so a slight edge to the under) in what could be a more controlled game than some recent meetings. Top-of-the-table Arsenal (1st, 61 points) face fifth-placed Chelsea (45 points) in a clash that could shape both the title race and the Champions League spots.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come into this derby on the back of a strong away run: a 4-1 dismantling of Tottenham, followed by draws at Wolves (2-2) and Brentford (1-1). Across those games they’ve shown they can dominate, racking up 20 shots at Spurs and maintaining a steady attacking output even when not at their best. Over the last five matches, they average 2.2 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, with expected goals at 2.052 for and 1.008 against, plus two clean sheets – numbers that underline a well-balanced, efficient side rather than a reckless one. Chelsea arrive unbeaten in three, but with a different tone: back-to-back home draws against Burnley (1-1) and Leeds (2-2) where they created plenty (12 and 19 shots respectively) but failed to put games away, and a solid 3-1 win at Wolves. Their five-game averages – 2.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded – mirror a lively but defensively looser outfit, backed up by a high attacking xG of 2.474 and a more vulnerable 1.7 xG conceded. The absence of any clean sheets in that stretch highlights why Arsenal, with the league’s best defence (21 goals against in 28 games), are slight favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction given only a 47.0% chance, suggesting a tight, cagey contest is more likely than a shoot-out. Two of Arsenal’s last three matches (4-1 vs Spurs, 2-2 at Wolves) went over 2.5 goals, with just the 1-1 at Brentford staying under, while Chelsea have also seen two of their last three go over (2-2 vs Leeds, 3-1 at Wolves) and one under (1-1 vs Burnley). However, Arsenal’s blend of 2.2 scored and only 1.0 conceded per game, coupled with Chelsea’s 1.4 conceded but no clean sheets and both sides’ xG profiles, point to a game with goals but not necessarily a high-scoring thriller – making under 2.5 a reasonable call.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.69, pointing to a game with steady but not frantic attacking output. Arsenal’s last three have seen them take 20, 10 and 7 shots, while limiting opponents to 6, 5 and 12; Chelsea’s matches have featured 12, 19 and 15 efforts of their own, with 12, 4 and 11 faced. This shots prediction aligns with the xG figures: Arsenal at 2.052 xG for and 1.008 against, Chelsea at 2.474 for and 1.7 against, indicating both teams should create a handful of decent chances without turning it into a shot-fest.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s edge comes from balance: league-leading defensive numbers, strong recent form away from home, and an attack that converts territory into chances without overexposing the back line. Chelsea’s attacking threat is real, but their lack of clean sheets and higher xG conceded tilt the odds towards the league leaders. The key factor to watch will be how Chelsea’s high-chance attack copes with Arsenal’s disciplined defence – whichever side wins that duel is likely to decide the derby.

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