Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Arsenal

Home Team
72%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Arsenal W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)

Fulham W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.72
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 3

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.27
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites here, with a 72.0% chance of victory against Fulham’s 13.0%, and the model firmly backing a home win. The over 2.5 prediction is also tipped, with a 52.0% probability that the game produces at least three goals. Arsenal come into this as league leaders in 1st place on 73 points, while Fulham sit 10th on 48 points, safely mid-table but well off the Champions League spots.

Match Analysis

Arsenal’s last three games have been a mixed bag: a tight 1-0 home win over Newcastle sandwiched between 2-1 defeats to Manchester City and Bournemouth. Even in those losses, they created plenty – 15 shots against Bournemouth and 9 away at City – and dominated corners at home (10-1 vs Bournemouth, 7-2 vs Newcastle), suggesting sustained attacking pressure that hasn’t always translated into goals. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with three clean sheets, underlining a generally solid balance. Fulham arrive from a steadier but less explosive run: a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa, a goalless draw at Brentford, and a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool. They’ve been competitive in each, with double-digit shot counts in all three (13, 11, 19 respectively), but their finishing has been blunt – only one goal in those games. Their five-game averages back that up: 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, despite xG numbers of 1.272 for and 1.722 against, which hint at a team creating chances but lacking cutting edge and occasionally leaving gaps at the back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 52.0% probability, expecting Arsenal’s attack to tilt the game towards a more open scoreline. Two of Arsenal’s last three matches have finished 2-1 (both losing efforts), meaning two out of three have gone over 2.5 goals, while Fulham have seen all three recent games finish under 2.5 (1-0, 0-0, 0-2). The averages and xG – Arsenal at 1.8 scored and 1.723 xG, Fulham at just 0.6 scored but 1.272 xG – suggest that if Fulham regress towards their expected numbers and Arsenal maintain their output, three or more goals is a reasonable call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.73, which fits the pattern of a game where Arsenal have most of the ball and territory but Fulham still carry a threat. Arsenal’s corner counts in their last three – 7, 5, and 10 – show how often their wide play and sustained pressure force set pieces. Fulham’s recent corner figures (2, 3, 9) are more varied, but their 9 against Liverpool underline their willingness to attack when given space. That makes the corners prediction of roughly 9–10 plausible in a match where both sides like to work the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.8 suggests a fairly lively attacking contest rather than a cagey stalemate. Arsenal’s last three shot totals (11, 9, 15) show a consistent ability to generate opportunities, while allowing 13, 15, and 8 at the other end. Fulham have been similarly shot-heavy – 13, 11, and 19 attempts – even when not scoring, and have also conceded 10, 13, and 18. That volume lines up neatly with a shots prediction in the mid‑20s and matches the xG profiles of two sides that do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Arsenal wins by X goals. Negative = Fulham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Arsenal vs Fulham with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Arsenal vs Fulham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +1.17 in Arsenal’s favour, indicating an expected home win by roughly a one-goal margin. Across their last three, Arsenal have a neutral goal difference (3 scored, 4 conceded), but their season-long +38 goal difference and current 1st-place standing justify a positive expected spread. Fulham’s recent three-game tally of 1 scored and 2 conceded, plus a season goal difference of -2, supports the model’s view that Arsenal’s stronger attack and tighter defence should create daylight on the scoreboard.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s superior league position, stronger recent scoring average, and more convincing underlying numbers give them a clear edge at home. Fulham’s work rate and chance creation mean they can test Arsenal, but their lack of goals in recent weeks is a concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Fulham can convert their xG into actual goals; if they don’t, Arsenal’s relentless pressure and set-piece threat should decide it.

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