Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Arsenal

Home Team
67%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: +1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Arsenal L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)

Newcastle L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.11
xGA (avg) 2.38
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites here, with a 67.0% probability of a home win against a Newcastle side given just a 16.0% chance, and a 17.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to an Arsenal victory combined with an over 2.5 prediction, with 56.0% chance of at least three goals. Top-of-the-table Arsenal (1st, 70 points) face a Newcastle team drifting in mid-table (14th, 42 points) and still searching for consistency.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come in off a mixed three‑game run: narrow 2-1 defeats to both Manchester City (away) and Bournemouth (home) before a controlled 2-0 win over Everton at the Emirates. Even in the losses, they carried plenty of attacking threat – outshooting Bournemouth 15-8 and Everton 25-9 – and dominating corners, which suggests performances have been better than results in patches. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded, backed up by strong xG numbers (1.88 for, 0.998 against) and two clean sheets. Newcastle, by contrast, are on a three‑match losing streak, all by the same 2-1 scoreline against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Sunderland. Each of those games was tight on the numbers – shots were level at 12-12 vs Bournemouth, barely behind at 16-17 vs Sunderland – but they’ve repeatedly come up short in both boxes. Their recent averages underline the problem: only 1.2 goals scored per game in the last five, while conceding 1.8, and an xG against of 2.378 shows how frequently they’re allowing good chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0%, and the recent trends support it. All of Arsenal’s last three matches have seen exactly three goals (2-1, 2-1, 2-0), so 2 out of 3 went over 2.5, while every one of Newcastle’s last three finished 2-1, meaning 3 out of 3 over 2.5. With Arsenal averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Newcastle at 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, aligned with the xG gap between Arsenal’s 1.88 for and Newcastle’s 2.378 against, the stage is set for goals rather than a cagey under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.08, pointing towards a busy afternoon for both defences. Arsenal’s recent corner counts – 5, 10 and 8 in their last three (and heavily out-cornering Bournemouth 10-1 and Everton 8-3) – reflect an aggressive, front-foot style at home. Newcastle have also been corner‑heavy, winning 2, 4 and 9 and conceding 3, 2 and 5, so the corners prediction of around ten looks well aligned with two sides that attack down the flanks and spend plenty of time in the final third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.32 total attempts, which fits neatly with the recent numbers. Arsenal have taken 9, 15 and 25 shots in their last three, while facing 15, 8 and 9; Newcastle have posted 12, 7 and 16 attempts while allowing 12, 11 and 17. Those volumes match the expected shots line in the mid‑20s and link naturally to the xG profile: Arsenal’s 1.88 xG for and Newcastle’s 2.378 xG against indicate that many of those shots should be decent-quality efforts, especially for the hosts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Arsenal wins by X goals. Negative = Newcastle wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Arsenal vs Newcastle with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Arsenal vs Newcastle
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Arsenal -1.16, meaning the home side are expected to win by just over a goal on average. Recent scorelines back that up: Arsenal are only -1 on aggregate over their last three (4 scored, 4 conceded), but have generally controlled games, while Newcastle are -3 over the same period, losing three times by a single goal. Coupled with a 67.0% home‑win probability and Arsenal’s superior attacking and defensive metrics, the expected spread firmly tilts towards a comfortable, if not crushing, Arsenal victory.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s sharper attack, tighter defence and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Newcastle side stuck in a run of 2-1 defeats and conceding too many chances. If Newcastle are to disrupt the script, they must improve their defending in the box against an Arsenal team that regularly turns territory and shots into goals. The key battle to watch will be Arsenal’s sustained pressure in the final third against Newcastle’s ability to withstand waves of attacks without cracking.

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