Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Arsenal

Home Team
96%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
2%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Arsenal W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bournemouth (Goals: 3 - 2)

Sunderland W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.05
# Clean Sheets: 3

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites at home, with a 96.0% probability of taking all three points against Sunderland, who have just a 2.0% chance of an upset (2.0% draw). The model points to a low‑scoring contest, leaning under 2.5 goals with a 50.0% chance and even suggesting a 47.0% probability that at least one side fails to score, leaning to no goal. Arsenal sit top of the table in 1st with 53 points, while Sunderland are 8th on 36 points.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come in from a mixed but solid run: a 4–0 away demolition of Leeds, a narrow 3–2 home loss to Man United, and a goalless draw at Nott’m Forest. Across their last five, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 3 clean sheets, backed by strong underlying numbers: 2.138 expected goals for and only 1.046 against. That combination of regular chance creation and defensive security explains why they are clear title contenders. Sunderland’s recent three‑game spell has been steadier than their broader underlying form: home wins over Burnley (3–0) and Crystal Palace (2–1) sandwich a 3–1 defeat at West Ham. However, over the last five matches they average just 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with expected goals also against them (0.926 for vs 2.162 against) and only 1 clean sheet. That suggests their recent wins have gone against the general run of their performances and that they tend to be second‑best in both boxes.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s superior league position, consistent attacking output, and far tighter defence give them a clear edge in this matchup. Sunderland’s difficulty in creating and limiting chances over a longer stretch makes it hard to see them sustaining pressure at the Emirates. A key factor to watch will be whether Arsenal can turn their expected goals advantage into early scores, or if Sunderland can frustrate them and drag the game into the kind of cagey, low‑scoring battle the numbers hint at.

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