Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Aston Villa

Home Team
21%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
61%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Aston Villa L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 1)

Chelsea L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.74
# Clean Sheets: 1

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.47
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are favoured to take all three points, with a 61.0% probability of an away win against Aston Villa’s 21.0% chance at Villa Park and an 18.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a relatively open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% probability. In the table, Villa are 4th on 51 points and pushing for the Champions League, while Chelsea sit 6th on 45 points and chasing them down.

Match Analysis

Aston Villa come into this on a mixed run: a 1-0 home win over Brighton, a 1-1 draw with Leeds, and a flat 2-0 defeat away to Wolves. At home they’ve been solid if not explosive, with just two goals scored and one conceded across their last two at Villa Park. Their recent five-game averages underline that pattern: 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded per match, backed up by xG of 1.264 for and only 0.744 against – a side that manages games well, keeps things relatively tight, and relies on efficiency rather than volume. Chelsea’s last three tell a slightly different story. They’ve drawn back‑to‑back home games (1-1 with Burnley, 2-2 with Leeds) after a narrow 2-1 defeat away to Arsenal, with all three matches producing at least two goals. The underlying numbers are strong going forward: over their last five, Chelsea average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with an impressive 2.538 expected goals created per game. The concern is at the back: 0 clean sheets in that stretch and 1.468 xG conceded on average suggests they give opponents chances, even when they control territory.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is marginally favoured at 52.0%, driven largely by Chelsea’s attacking output. Two of Chelsea’s last three matches (vs Arsenal and Leeds) went over 2.5 goals, while all three of Aston Villa’s recent games (2, 2 and 1 total goals) finished under 2.5. Villa’s 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, versus Chelsea’s 1.8 for and 1.4 against, plus the visitors’ high xG numbers, point towards a contest where Chelsea’s more expansive style could push this just over the line rather than a cagey under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.43 hints at an open game with both teams prepared to pull the trigger. Villa’s last three produced 14, 16 and 15 attempts of their own, while conceding 9, 14 and 9 – consistently placing their matches in the mid‑20s for combined shots. Chelsea’s recent games have been similar or higher: 9–12 at Arsenal, 12–12 against Burnley, and 19–4 versus Leeds, backing up a positive shots prediction and matching their strong attacking xG profile.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s edge comes from their superior recent attacking output and higher chance creation, reflected in both the 61.0% win probability and their 2.538 xG per game. Villa’s discipline and defensive numbers mean they won’t roll over, especially at home, but Chelsea look better equipped to turn territory into goals. The key factor to watch will be whether Villa’s compact, efficient shape can blunt Chelsea’s volume of shots and set‑pieces, or whether the visitors’ pressure eventually tells.

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