Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs Leeds Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Aston Villa

Home Team
76%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 25.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Aston Villa W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)

Leeds D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.39
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.75
# Clean Sheets: 2

Leeds

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are strong favourites here, with a 76.0% probability of a home win against a Leeds side sitting 15th, while Villa are pushing for the title race in 3rd place. The draw is rated at 13.0% and a Leeds victory just 11.0%, underlining the gap between the sides in both form and league position. The model also leans towards a tight game in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction at 52.0% implied by the 48.0% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Villa come into this one on a mixed three-game run: a solid 1-0 home win over Brighton, a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, and a frustrating 0-1 home defeat to Brentford despite dominating with 27 shots and 12 corners. That sequence shows a team generally controlling territory and chance creation but not always turning pressure into goals. Their last five-game numbers back this up: 1.2 goals scored on average from 1.388 expected goals and just 0.8 conceded from 0.748 xG against, plus two clean sheets, point to a defensively sound side that usually edges games rather than blows teams away. Leeds’ last three matches have been more volatile: a heavy 0-4 home loss to Arsenal, a lively 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, and a resilient 2-2 draw at Chelsea. They’ve shown they can score (1.4 goals per game over the last five, with 1.618 xG) but also leak chances, conceding 1.6 goals on average from 1.804 xG against and keeping just one clean sheet in that span. Combined with their -9 goal difference and 45 goals conceded in 26 league games, Leeds look more open and less controlled, especially compared with Villa’s more balanced profile.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5 goals with a 52.0% implied edge over the 48.0% chance of overs, fitting the idea of a controlled Villa home performance. Two of Villa’s last three league games (1-0 vs Brighton, 0-1 vs Brentford) finished under 2.5, with only the 1-1 at Bournemouth flirting with a higher scoreline. For Leeds, all of their last three have gone over 2.5 (0-4, 3-1, 2-2), but their xG profile of 1.618 for and 1.804 against suggests more about openness than guaranteed high scoring, and Villa’s compact defending points towards a cagey under 2.5 outcome despite Leeds’ recent chaos.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.68, suggesting a reasonably active attacking contest without becoming a complete shootout. Villa’s last three matches saw them take 15, 7, and a huge 27 shots, underlining how they can rack up attempts at home, even if their average goals (1.2) and xG (1.388) show they are not hyper-clinical. Leeds have created fewer efforts (4, 14, and 3 shots in their last three), often allowing opponents plenty of chances, which fits a shots prediction where Villa carry most of the 25–26 expected shots, consistent with their stronger xG profile and home dominance.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa’s superior league position, tighter defensive record, and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Leeds side that remains vulnerable without the ball. While Leeds’ openness can make games lively, Villa’s structure and home control point towards a home win in a match more likely decided by fine margins than a goal glut. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Leeds cope with Villa’s sustained attacks and set-piece pressure, especially in terms of corners and repeat shooting opportunities.

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