Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Aston Villa

Home Team
53%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Aston Villa L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 3)

Tottenham W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

xG (avg) 1.86
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 1

Tottenham

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are favoured to edge this one, with a 53.0% chance of a home win compared to just 24.0% for Tottenham and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 49.0% and a slight expectation that both teams score (55.0% “goal” probability). Villa come into this as a top‑five side in 5th on 58 points, while Spurs are under real pressure down in 18th on 34 points.

Match Analysis

Villa’s recent form has been mixed but lively. A 4-3 home thriller against Sunderland showed their attacking ceiling, sandwiched between a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest and a 1-0 defeat away to Fulham. Across their last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG numbers (1.858 for, 1.494 against) suggesting they generally create slightly more than they allow, even if the clean sheets are rare (just one in five). Tottenham’s last three tell a different story: a narrow 1-0 win away at Wolves, a 2-2 home draw with Brighton and a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland. They’re finding goals hard to come by, averaging only 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five, while their expected goals for (0.956) and against (1.666) underline a side creating less and allowing more than Villa. That imbalance, combined with their lowly 18th place, helps explain why the hosts are favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability, despite not being a huge margin either way. Two of Villa’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4-3 vs Sunderland, 1-0 vs Fulham, 1-1 vs Forest), while two of Tottenham’s last three stayed under 2.5 (1-0 vs Wolves, 2-2 vs Brighton, 1-0 vs Sunderland). With Villa averaging 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded and Spurs at just 0.6 scored, plus their modest xG figures, a cautious under 2.5 call feels consistent with the numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.75 total corners, suggesting a reasonably active but not frantic game on the flanks. Villa’s last three have produced combined corner counts of 7, 9 and 10, while Tottenham’s have delivered 10, 12 and 8. Both teams generate and concede a fair number of corners, which suits Villa’s front‑foot approach at home and Spurs’ need to break quickly, backing up that predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.44, indicating a game with a decent volume of attempts rather than a siege. Villa’s last three outings saw shot totals of 23, 25 and 27, while Spurs’ matches recorded 22, 23 and 24 efforts. That aligns neatly with this shots prediction and the underlying xG: Villa’s stronger attacking metrics should ensure they edge the shot count, even if Tottenham still fashion chances of their own.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Aston Villa wins by X goals. Negative = Tottenham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Aston Villa vs Tottenham with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Aston Villa vs Tottenham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.62 in Villa’s favour, meaning the hosts are tipped to win by roughly a single goal. Over the last three, Villa’s goal difference is exactly level (5 scored, 5 conceded), while Tottenham’s is slightly negative (3 scored, 3 conceded but with that recent defeat). When you combine Villa’s superior league position, higher scoring rate and better xG profile with the 53.0% home‑win probability, the expected spread looks justified.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa’s stronger attacking output, healthier xG numbers and far better league position give them the edge over a Tottenham side still struggling to create and convert. If Villa impose their usual home rhythm and Spurs can’t lift their attacking volume, the hosts should have just enough. Watch the midfield battle and Villa’s chance creation: if they reach their expected levels, the home win prediction is likely to land.

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