Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs West Ham Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Aston Villa

Home Team
65%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Aston Villa L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)

West Ham D W L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 1

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.69
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are favoured to take all three points here, with a 65.0% probability of a home win against a West Ham side sitting 18th and fighting relegation. Villa, currently 4th and chasing Champions League football, are backed to edge this despite their recent slump. The game leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% chance), suggesting a tight contest rather than a shootout.

Match Analysis

Villa come into this badly out of form: three straight defeats, conceding nine and scoring just twice against Man United (1-3), Chelsea (1-4) and Wolves (0-2). Even so, the underlying numbers are less disastrous than the scorelines: over the last five games they average 1.192 expected goals for and 1.242 against, while keeping one clean sheet. They’re creating enough to be competitive, but their finishing and defensive errors have been costly. West Ham, despite their lowly position, have been more competitive in recent weeks. A 1-1 draw at home to Man City – despite being out-shot 1-24 – followed a gritty 1-0 away win at Fulham and a wild 2-5 defeat at Liverpool. Over their last five matches, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG figures of 1.694 for and 1.778 against, plus two clean sheets. They look livelier in attack than Villa at the moment, but remain porous at the back, which may explain why the win probability still strongly favours the higher-ranked hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 44.0% probability, and the recent numbers back a cautious goals line. Two of Aston Villa’s last three league games have actually gone over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs United, 1-4 vs Chelsea) but their own attacking return is just 0.6 goals per game over the last five, with 1.4 conceded and only 1.192 xG for. For West Ham, two of their last three have also gone over (2-5 vs Liverpool, 1-1 vs City, 1-0 vs Fulham), but their xG profile – 1.694 for and 1.778 against – points more to steady, not explosive, attacking play. Overall, the under 2.5 call looks like a solid over 2.5 prediction fade rather than expecting another goal-fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches
West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.28, suggesting a reasonably busy game at set pieces. Villa’s last three have produced 12, 11 and 5 corners (they earned 6, 3 and 5), while West Ham’s have seen 16, 12 and 15 (with the Hammers winning 1, 5 and 5). Both sides tend to concede a lot of corners when under pressure, and West Ham especially invite waves of attacks, which supports a corners prediction close to or slightly above that 10.28 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.2, in line with what both teams have been involved in recently. Villa’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 25, 24 and 23, while West Ham’s featured 25, 22 and a huge 25 efforts, often with the Hammers on the back foot. Given West Ham’s recent xG (1.694 for, 1.778 against) and Villa’s steady chance creation, a shots prediction around 25 total attempts feels realistic, with the home side likely to take the larger share.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa’s higher league position, stronger squad depth and home advantage give them the clear edge, even if their recent form has been worrying. West Ham’s openness and fragile defence may ultimately tilt the balance towards a narrow home win in a relatively controlled, low-scoring game. Watch the midfield battle: whichever side controls territory there should dictate both the shot count and, ultimately, the result.

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