Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Bournemouth

Home Team
37%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
36%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Bournemouth W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 3)

Aston Villa L W L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.19
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are narrowly favoured to edge this one at home, with a 37.0% chance of victory compared to Aston Villa’s 36.0%, and a predicted home win despite the almost even odds. Goals are expected, with a 55.0% probability of over 2.5 goals and a predicted “over 2.5” outcome, plus a 58.0% chance that both sides get on the scoresheet. Villa arrive as title outsiders in 3rd place on 46 points, while Bournemouth sit 12th on 33 points, closer to the mid-table pack.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth come into this clash in good form: back-to-back wins over Wolves (2–0 away) and Liverpool (3–2 at home) followed by a solid 1–1 draw at Brighton. That run underlines their attacking spark – they’ve averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, backed up by 1.738 expected goals per game. Defensively, they still give teams chances (1.6 conceded on average), but the underlying numbers are slightly kinder, with just 1.0 expected goals conceded and one clean sheet in that span, suggesting a more solid base than their season-long goals against column implies. Villa’s recent results have been mixed: an impressive 2–0 win at Newcastle is sandwiched between 1–0 home defeats to Brentford and Everton. They’re still creating consistently, averaging 1.6 goals and 1.798 expected goals over the last five, but the concern is at the back: 1.4 goals conceded per game and a high 2.188 expected goals against. Two clean sheets show they can shut teams out, but overall they’re allowing opponents too many good opportunities.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s strong recent results, plus their tighter expected goals against compared to Villa’s leaky defensive numbers, give them a slight edge at home. With both sides averaging close to two expected goals in attack, the key factor to watch will be which defence handles the pressure better in what looks set to be an open, high-scoring contest.

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