Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction - 3 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Bournemouth

Home Team
51%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
25%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Bournemouth D D W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)

Brentford W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Brentford

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are slight favourites at home, with a 51.0% chance of victory against a Brentford side given a 25.0% chance, with the draw also at 25.0%. The model points towards a Bournemouth win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals (54.0% for over), in what looks like a tight mid‑table clash. In the Premier League table, Brentford sit 7th on 43 points, just ahead of 10th‑placed Bournemouth on 39, underlining how important this is in the race to stay in touch with the European spots.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth come into this on a three‑match unbeaten run: draws against Sunderland (1-1 at home) and West Ham (0-0 away), followed by a 2-1 away win at Everton. Those results show a useful mix of resilience and edge – two away games with four points collected, plus two clean sheets in their last five overall. Offensively they are in decent rhythm: 2.0 goals scored on average in the last five, backed up by 1.82 expected goals per game, while conceding 1.8 goals from only 1.116 xG against suggests some defensive lapses but generally solid underlying protection. Brentford’s recent form has been more volatile: a thrilling 4-3 win away to Burnley, sandwiched between a 0-2 home defeat to Brighton and a hard‑earned 1-1 draw with Arsenal. They are clearly dangerous going forward, averaging 2.4 goals scored in their last five with 1.788 xG, but also open at the back, conceding 1.8 goals and 1.784 xG per match across that spell with just one clean sheet. Both sides’ numbers point to proactive attacks and defences that can be got at, which fits the prediction of a home win in a game that should be anything but cagey.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 54.0% probability, and the recent scorelines back that up. For Bournemouth, one of their last three league games went over 2.5 goals (the 2-1 win at Everton), while the other two stayed under (1-1 vs Sunderland, 0-0 at West Ham). Brentford have been more explosive: two of their last three matches were under 2.5 (0-2 vs Brighton, 1-1 vs Arsenal), but the 4-3 at Burnley was a clear over. With Bournemouth averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Brentford at 2.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, both supported by healthy xG figures, the balance tips towards more chances and goals rather than a tight, under 2.5 affair.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 26.29, which matches the pattern of these teams’ recent performances. Bournemouth’s last three produced 29 shots vs Sunderland (21-8), 30 at West Ham (10-20) and 27 at Everton (11-16), regularly pushing games into the high‑20s or beyond. Brentford’s numbers are similar: 28 attempts at Burnley (16-12), 24 vs Brighton (13-11) and 19 against Arsenal (12-7). Their attacking intent and xG profiles suggest a steady flow of opportunities at both ends, making this shots prediction plausible in what should be an open encounter.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s edge comes from home advantage combined with slightly more controlled underlying numbers at the back, which nudges the probabilities in their favour despite Brentford’s higher league position. Brentford’s firepower ensures they remain a serious threat, but their tendency to concede good chances could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be how Bournemouth’s attack handles Brentford’s open defensive structure – if the hosts are clinical, the numbers point towards three points staying on the south coast.

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