Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bournemouth

Home Team
58%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Bournemouth D W W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)

Crystal Palace L D W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 1

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are favoured to take all three points here, with a 58.0% chance of a home win against Crystal Palace’s 21.0%, leaving the draw also at 21.0%. The Cherries sit 7th on 49 points, pushing for a surprise European spot, while Palace are 13th with 43 points and looking safely mid‑table. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% and both teams backed to score (57.0% goal probability).

Match Analysis

Bournemouth arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last three and fresh from back‑to‑back away wins at Newcastle and Arsenal, both by 2-1 scorelines. Even in the 2-2 home draw with Leeds they showed attacking intent, racking up 17 shots and an overwhelming 12-1 corner count. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but importantly their underlying threat is higher, with 1.93 expected goals per game and only 1.074 xG against, plus one clean sheet in that span. Crystal Palace’s recent run has been steadier than spectacular: a 2-1 home win over Newcastle, a 0-0 stalemate with West Ham, and a competitive 3-1 defeat at Liverpool. They’ve been in every game, matching shots in each of those fixtures (9-9 vs West Ham, 11-7 vs Newcastle, 14-9 at Anfield). Over their last five, Palace are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG figures of 1.416 for and 1.366 against and two clean sheets, suggesting a balanced side but without Bournemouth’s recent cutting edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a 55.0% probability, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Bournemouth’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Leeds, 2-1 at Newcastle, 2-1 at Arsenal), while two of Palace’s three also finished above the line (3-1 at Liverpool, 0-0 vs West Ham, 2-1 vs Newcastle). With Bournemouth posting 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average but an xG of 1.93 for, and Palace at 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded and 1.416 xG for, the data points towards goals rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.2, which fits the recent patterns. Bournemouth’s last three have produced 13, 5 and 11 corners respectively, including that huge 12-1 tally against Leeds, showing how their front‑foot style forces set‑piece situations. Palace’s matches have seen 13 corners at Liverpool, 10 against West Ham and 6 versus Newcastle, so the predicted corners figure around double digits looks realistic for two sides willing to attack wide and cross.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model suggests 24.32 expected shots in this match, a total consistent with both teams’ recent output. Bournemouth’s last three games featured combined shot counts of 27 (vs Leeds), 24 (at Newcastle) and 23 (at Arsenal), while Palace’s produced 23 (at Liverpool), 18 (vs West Ham) and 18 (vs Newcastle). That shots prediction also aligns with the xG numbers: both teams regularly create around 1.4–1.9 expected goals, which usually requires a healthy volume of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bournemouth wins by X goals. Negative = Crystal Palace wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.59 in favour of Bournemouth, indicating the home side are projected to win by roughly a single goal. Across their last three, Bournemouth are +2 on goal difference (six scored, four conceded), helped by those two 2-1 away victories. Palace sit at -1 over the same period (three scored, four conceded), reflecting their more mixed results. That +0.59 edge dovetails with the 58.0% home‑win probability and Bournemouth’s stronger recent balance between attacking xG and defensive solidity.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s momentum, superior underlying numbers and home advantage give them a clear, if not overwhelming, edge over a Palace side that has been competitive but less incisive. The key factor to watch will be how Bournemouth’s high xG attack fares against a Palace defence that has delivered two clean sheets in five; if the hosts convert their chances at something close to recent levels, the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals could both land.

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